CBOT futures closed mixed as traders prepared for tomorrow’s USDA crop production estimates. This is the first report of the 2014-15 crop year that is based on surveys of farmers and physical field plots.

Corn futures traded higher as Friday’s closes were very close to key chart support.  Soybean futures tried to add to Friday’s gains, but worked lower throughout the day once the pits opened at 930 am and closed on the day’s lows. The expiring August Soybean contract was very volatile.

Tonight’s 6-14 day NWS outlook has normal or higher temperatures and that is good news. Above-normal rainfall is expected east of the Mississippi River.

This afternoon’s USDA Crop Condition ratings show very little change from last week as a whole.

Corn Conditions – 18 States . Good/Excellent Poor/V.Poor This Week      73% 7% Last Week      73% 7% Last year        64% 11%

In Dough stage: 54% vs 46% average

Soybean Conditions – 18 States . Good/Excellent Poor/V.Poor This Week        70% 7% Last Week        71% 6% Last year         64% 9%

Setting Pods: 72% vs 65% average

Winter Wheat Harvested – 18 States 95% this week versus 91% last year and 90% for 5-year average.

U.S. Pasture: 50% good/excellent vs 50% last week and 45% year ago. 18% poor/v.poor vs 18% last week and 28% year ago.

Cattle futures closed higher after opening lower, resulting in very wide trading ranges. Given last week’s sharp sell-off, a turnaround is not surprising given that cash cattle price is at a big premium to August LC. USDA reports that last week, fed cattle sold mostly $158-160/cwt, or about $3-4 lower than the previous week. Today, Choice Beef fell 1.01 to 259.44 and Select lost 1.38 to 251.62/cwt. Feeder Cattle futures were very strong as traders hope tomorrow’s USDA crop report will keep the pressure on corn prices.

Lean Hog futures closed the pit trade around 1 pm with higher prices, but prices collapsed in the afternoon as wholesale pork values crashed. The FOB Plant cutout ended down 4.47 to 120.52/cwt. Severe losses were seen in the value of hams, bellies, ribs and loins.

Corn Sep +5 357; Dec +5 368; Dec’15 +2 409 Bean Sep -5 1108; Nov -11 1073; Nov’15 -10 1074 (August beans traded as high as +51 cents, closed +30) Meal Sep unch 367; Dec -2 349 Oil -60 3492 Wheat Sep -3 546; Dec -3 563; Jly -4 600 KC -5 624; MGE -2 616 Oats +1 359 Rice -3 1262

LC Aug +7 15262; Oct +45 15045; Feb +225 15335 FC Aug +215 21747; Oct +237 21635; Mar +240 20790 LH Aug +32 11455; Oct +85 10017; Feb +82 8872 (note: PIT closes) Late day LH futures were much lower. Milk Aug +10 2187; Sep +28 2182

US$ +.1%

Dow +16 16570 SP +5 1937 NAS +30 4401 Tran +64 8157 VIX -1.54 14.23 -10%

WTI +27 9792 Brent -47 10455 Gas unch 275 NG +3 399 HO +1 288 Eth +3 207

Gold -1 1309 Slvr +7 2001

2-yr +.004 0.444% 5-yr +.007 1.617% 10yr +.014 2.429% 30yr +.016 3.242%

Blue Grass Stockyards Cattle Auction Report for 08/11/2014

Receipts:   699   Last Monday:   770   Year Ago:  611 Compared to last week steer and heifer calves sold steady to 3.00 lower on middleweight 400-600 lbs with moderate demand.  Yearling steers sold 2.00 lower in a limited comparison with good demand.  Bull calves sold 3.00 to 8.00 lower with light demand.  Quality was plain through good.  Feeder cattle futures limit down at the opening which softened the market early, however futures improved late morning which rallied late morning sales.  Slaughter cows and slaughter bulls sold steady with good demand. Total supply included 12% slaughter cows, 02% slaughter bulls, less than 01% replacements and 86% feeders.  Feeder supply 55% steers, 20% bulls, 25% heifers with 49% of feeders weighing over 600 lbs. 

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