Market Update - October 10, 2014

Posted on Oct 10, 2014
The Crop Report and WASDE released at Noon CT had some good news in it and CBOT futures have rallied from the losses seen before the report. Generally, yields and production estimates are HIGHER than USDA’s September estimates but are lower than what the Average Trade Guess was. The 2014/15 Ending Stocks estimates also came in better (lower) than the trade expected. The next question will be whether USDA-NASS “throttled” the yield increases used in the report and the “big crops get bigger” rule will still play out.

Cattle futures continue to fall sharply following yesterday’s bearish key reversal. This weakness is weighing on Lean Hog futures as well. FOB Plant Pork is steady at midday.

Corn Dec -1 343 (low 336); May -1 365; Dec15 -1 389 Bean Nov +4 946 (low 926); May +4 971; Nov15 +3 967 Meal Dec +5 318; May +2 310 Oil -12 3289 Wheat Dec +13 506 (low 488); Jly +9 529 (low 515) KC +14 587; MGE +11 565 Oats +2 346 Rice -2 1257

LC Oct unch 16415; Dec -140 16447; Apr -257 16382 FC Oct -230 23935; Nov -300 23852; Mar -297 23130 LH Oct -22 10927; Dec -117 9445; Apr -77 9122 Milk Oct -4 2413; Nov -14 2173

U.S. Crop Production

 

Corn

October

2014

Trade

Guess

Sept

USDA

Yield 174.2 bu 174.6 171.7
Prod’n

14.475

Billion

14.51

 

13.925
Soybean
Yield 47.1 bu 47.6 46.6
Prod’n

3.927

Billion

3.98 3.913
 

 

2014/15 Ending

Stocks

 

October

 

September

U.S. Corn 2.081 billion 2.002
World Corn 190.6 mmt 189.9
U.S. Soybean 450 million 475
World Soybean 90.67 mmt 90.17
U.S. Wheat 654 million 698
World Wheat 192.59 mmt 196.38
KENTUCKY’S CROP YIELDS Corn = 153.0 bu/ac vs 148.0 last month.    Production = 221.85 million bushels (down from 243.1 in 2013)  

Soybean = 47.0 bu/ac vs 46.0 last month.    Production = 82.25 million bushels (down from 83.00 in 2013)

US$ +.3%

Dow +.5% SP +.3% NAS -.5% Tran -.4% VIX -2.8% 18.23

WTI unch Brent unch Gas -.6% NG +.6% HO +.8% Eth +.3% Gold -.2% Slvr -.3%

5-yr -.006 1.564% 10yr -.016 2.311% 30yr -.017 3.046%

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Tagged Post Topics Include: Economics, Market updates