The Crop Report and WASDE released at Noon CT had some good news in it and CBOT futures have rallied from the losses seen before the report. Generally, yields and production estimates are HIGHER than USDA’s September estimates but are lower than what the Average Trade Guess was. The 2014/15 Ending Stocks estimates also came in better (lower) than the trade expected. The next question will be whether USDA-NASS “throttled” the yield increases used in the report and the “big crops get bigger” rule will still play out.

Cattle futures continue to fall sharply following yesterday’s bearish key reversal. This weakness is weighing on Lean Hog futures as well. FOB Plant Pork is steady at midday.

Corn Dec -1 343 (low 336); May -1 365; Dec15 -1 389 Bean Nov +4 946 (low 926); May +4 971; Nov15 +3 967 Meal Dec +5 318; May +2 310 Oil -12 3289 Wheat Dec +13 506 (low 488); Jly +9 529 (low 515) KC +14 587; MGE +11 565 Oats +2 346 Rice -2 1257

LC Oct unch 16415; Dec -140 16447; Apr -257 16382 FC Oct -230 23935; Nov -300 23852; Mar -297 23130 LH Oct -22 10927; Dec -117 9445; Apr -77 9122 Milk Oct -4 2413; Nov -14 2173

U.S. Crop Production

Corn	October 2014	Trade Guess	Sept USDA
Yield	174.2 bu	174.6	171.7
Prod’n	14.475 Billion	14.51	13.925
Soybean
Yield	47.1 bu	47.6	46.6
Prod’n	3.927 Billion	3.98	3.913

 

 

2014/15 Ending Stocks	October	September
U.S. Corn	2.081 billion	2.002
World Corn	190.6 mmt	189.9
U.S. Soybean	450 million	475
World Soybean	90.67 mmt	90.17
U.S. Wheat	654 million	698
World Wheat	192.59 mmt	196.38

KENTUCKY’S CROP YIELDS Corn = 153.0 bu/ac vs 148.0 last month.    Production = 221.85 million bushels (down from 243.1 in 2013)  

Soybean = 47.0 bu/ac vs 46.0 last month.    Production = 82.25 million bushels (down from 83.00 in 2013)

US$ +.3%

Dow +.5% SP +.3% NAS -.5% Tran -.4% VIX -2.8% 18.23

WTI unch Brent unch Gas -.6% NG +.6% HO +.8% Eth +.3% Gold -.2% Slvr -.3%

5-yr -.006 1.564% 10yr -.016 2.311% 30yr -.017 3.046%

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