Market Update - May 1, 2014

Posted on May 1, 2014
Market reports blame this morning’s USDA grain export sales report that showed a net reduction in soybean commitments.  Given that prices were near recent highs and chart resistance, the bigger traders probably decided it’s a good day to take profits.  Even with today’s sharp losses, the price is still well above prices traded early last week.  July Chicago Wheat now has a double-top formation but KC and MGEX wheat charts look much better.

Forecasts for a little wider planting window before the next wet period also weighed on corn futures. If corn gets planted then soybean acres won’t surprise to the upside, so today new-crop beans are not dropping like the old-crop contracts.

Live Cattle futures are higher even as boxed beef values slip.  At midday, Choice beef down 2.81 to 230.29 and Select is down .54 to 221.75/cwt. The June LC contract is at significant discount to cash trade but we’re over 30 days from when it matters.  Feeder Cattle futures are soaring as feed costs drop.  Technically, FC are “overbought” and one shouldn’t be surprised for a correction to happen anytime.

Lean Hog futures are trading mixed with the nearby May contract under pressure from weak cash markets. At midday, the FOB Plant Pork value is down 232 to 113.48/cwt.  May and June LH contracts are now $10/cwt lower than the high set about 6 weeks ago. But LH futures spiked lower on April 9 to prices about $12-13 below those highs.  It’s fair to say Lean Hog futures are volatile and risky.

Corn Jly -9 510; Dec -9 500 (498-512) Bean Jly -34 1479; Nov -16 1230 (1227-47) Meal Jly -11 482; Oct -6 393 Oil -56 4155 Wheat Jly -14 707 (701-24) Kc -7 805; mge -7 761 OATS -7 353 Rice -3 1552

LC Jun +92 13812; Oct +90 14130 FC May +207 18327; Aug +250 18997; Oct +207 19005 LH May -65 11702; Jun +25 12337; Oct +95 10385 Milk May +34 2289; Jun +58 2180

US$ steady

Dow unch SP +2 1886 NAS +28 4143 Tran +65 7737 VIX -.7% 13.32

WTI -.3% Brent -.6% Gas -1% NG -1.7% HO -.7% Eth -2.6%

Gold -.9% Slvr -.3%

5-yr -.023 1.66% 10yr -.033 2.61% 30yr -.035 3.42%



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Tagged Post Topics Include: Economics, Market updates