Market Update - January 10, 2014

Posted on Jan 10, 2014
Today’s USDA reports are considered friendly to corn as yield, production and December 1 st stocks came in under expectations.  Soybean statistics came in about as expected but are weighing on the market.   Wheat saw higher than expected stocks and a growing 2013/14 ending stocks forecast.         

Here’s the results compared to USDA’s last number and the trade estimates.

 

Category

USDA Last

(if available)

Traders’

Forecast

Today’s

USDA Estimate

2013 Prod’n

Corn

Yield

 

13.99 billion

160.4 bu/ac

 

14.05 bil.

161.1 bu/ac

 

13.93

158.8

Soybeans

Yield

3.26 billion

43.0 bu/ac

3.27 bil.

43.2 bu/ac

3.29

43.3

2013/2014

ENDING Stocks

Corn

 

 

1.792 billion

 

 

1.844 bil.

 

 

1.631 bil

Soybean 150 million 151 mil. 150 mil.
Wheat 575 million 559 mil. 608 mil.
       
December 1

Grain Stocks

Corn

 

 

 

 

 

10.80 bil.

 

 

10.4 bil.

Soybean   2.16 bil. 2.15 bil.
Wheat   1.40 bil. 1.46 bil.
These are prices from 15 minutes after the reports were released.

Corn Mar +10 422; Jly +9 437; Dec +7 448 Bean Mar +4 1278; Jly +2 1243; Nov -5 1096 Meal Mar +2 416; Jly +2 397 Oil -12 3784 Wheat Mar -18 566; Jly -17 577 KC -11 628; MGE -6 623 Oats -2 393 Rice +19 1560

LC Feb +30 13685; Jun +12 13025 FC Jan -25 16890; Apr -57 16905 LH Feb +80 8605; Apr +35 9107 Milk Jan +8 2050; Feb +18 2034

 Live Cattle futures are higher but are still inside or near this week’s trading range. Boxed beef has been increasing in value, so hopefully packers will come through with higher fed cattle prices this week.  Recent winter weather should have limited weight gains and thus tightened the nearby fed cattle supply.

Feeder Cattle futures turned negative after corn futures rallied off the pre-report lows.

Lean Hog futures are also higher with the February LH contract leading the way. With cash markets fairly directionless, LH futures are ending the week about where they started.

A very disappointing US jobs report (worst in 3 years) this morning brings into doubt the pace of tapering by the Federal Reserve.  Investors rushed back into Treasuries which dropped yields.  The equity markets are now working lower after holding up initially when the jobs number came out.  The jobs report showed a large number of people leaving the jobs market so the unemployment rate fell to 6.7%; the labor force participation rate fell to 62.8%, its worst level since 1978.

US$ -.35% Dow -.3% SP -.2% NAS -.2% Tran +.6% VIX -1.8% 12.65

WTI +.9% Brent +.3% Gas +.3% NG +1.3% HO unch Eth +.5%

Gold +1.1% Slvr +2%

5-yr -.10 1.655% 10yr -.08 2.89% 30yr -.06 3.82%

KENTUCKY CASH GRAIN BIDS Click Here

Tagged Post Topics Include: Economics, Market updates