Market Update - August 20, 2014

Posted on Aug 20, 2014
CBOT futures are under pressure from large yield estimates coming out of the ProFarmer Crop Tour that’s being conducted this week. The strengthening US dollar is also bearish due to its effect on exports. Since July 1st, the US Dollar Index is up 2.7 percent. The only bright spot is the old-crop September soybean and soybean meal contracts due to continued strong demand for real soybeans available to ship or consume quickly.

With recent rains, the Kentucky Corn and Soybean crops, on average, have quit deteriorating.

Livestock futures are down sharply with a couple Feeder Cattle contracts touching down the daily limit of $3.00. Some other contracts are hitting new lows for this move. While hog futures have been trending lower since mid-July, cattle futures’ slide didn’t start until July 31 and has been less extreme. The short-term outlook doesn’t look good considering beef and pork values continue weakening. Tuesday afternoon’s market showed Choice Beef down 2.19 at 252.91; Select down 2.66 at 243.91/cwt. Choice beef peaked at $263.66 on July 31.

The FOB Plant Pork cutout has dropped about $16/cwt in the past 12 days. At $109.66, it’s down from the July 18th peak of $137.56/cwt. The values of ham and belly are each down more than 27 percent in that time. Corn Sep -5 358; Dec -6 366; Dec’15 -6 407 Bean Sep -1 1119; Nov -9 1043; Nov’15 -9 1050 Meal Sep unch 400; Dec -7 346 Oil +36 3302 Wheat Sep -8 538; Jly -13 583 KC -6 618; MGE -5 611 Oats unch 370 Rice unch 1312

LC Aug -237 14812; Oct -232 14490; Apr -135 15015 FC Aug -170 21545; Oct -265 21072; Mar -265 20475 LH Oct -185 9297; Dec -210 8652; Feb -162 8562 Milk Sep unch 2285; Oct -2 2144

US$ +.2%

Dow +.2% SP +.1% NAS steady Tran +.5% VIX -1.6% 12.01

WTI +.2% Brent +.2% Gas +.2% NG -1.4% HO steady Eth -1.3% Gold -.2% Slvr +.3%

5-yr +.015 1.595% 10yr +.005 2.412% 30yr unch 3.220%

Blue Grass Stockyards Cattle Report for 08/19/2014 Receipts: 739 Last Tuesday: 1110 Year Ago: 1490 Compared to Monday steer and heifer calves sold steady, except 600-700 lbs sold firm with very good demand. Quality was average to attractive. Yearling steers sold steady in a limited comparison. Yearling heifers untested. Slaughter cows sold 2.00 higher with very good demand. Slaughter bulls sold steady with good demand. Total supply included 07% slaughter cows, 02% slaughter bulls, 01% replacements and 90% feeders. Feeder supply 60% steers, 16% bulls, 24% heifers with 54% of feeders weighing over 600 lbs.

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Tagged Post Topics Include: Economics, Market updates