Market Closes - September 23, 2019

Posted on Sep 23, 2019

Corn Dec +2 373 (371-74); Jly +3 398

Bean Nov +10 892 (883-99); Jly +6 935

  Meal +3 294 (290-95)

  Oil -9 2919

Wheat Dec -1 483; Jly -1 498 (497-502)

  KC -1 406; MGE +13 537

Oats +4 280

Rice -25 1206

 

LC Oct +250 10185; Feb +202 11410; Apr +127 11690

FC Sep +127 14160; Nov +270 13972; Jan +200 13585

LH Oct +60 6095; Dec +212 6837; Feb +122 7512

Milk Sep unch 1826; Oct -39 1827

 

CBOT futures closed mostly higher, led by the soybean and meal contracts. Today’s gains only erased about half of last week’s losses.  Futures were supported by excessive rainfall in parts of the Corn Belt, trade optimism with China, and a rumored Chinese purchase of 10 cargoes of soybeans. Corn and soybean maturity are well behind the 5-year average pace.  The wet conditions are especially hurting spring wheat, which rallied over 2 percent. December MGE wheat has rallied over 50 cents since Sep 4. Chicago Dec Wheat is only up 33 cents for the same period.

 

Week ending Sep 22

U.S. Corn Conditions
.      Good/Excellent  Poor/V.Poor
This Week      57%         13%
Last Week      55%         14%
Last year      79%         12%
  ** 29% Mature vs 57% average
  **  7% Harvested vs 11% average

 

U.S. Soybean Conditions
.      Good/Excellent  Poor/V.Poor
This Week      54%         13%
Last Week      54%         14%
Last year      68%         10%

  ** 34% dropping leaves vs 59% average

U.S. Pasture and Range
45% good/excellent vs 45% year ago.
24% poor/v.poor vs 24% year ago.

KENTUCKY CROP CONDITIONS:

Note that KY’s Pasture Condition has only 14% in Good condition and Zero in Excellent condition. 54% of pasture is in poor to very poor condition.

 

LC Oct +250 10185; Feb +202 11410; Apr +127 11690

FC Sep +127 14160; Nov +270 13972; Jan +200 13585

LH Oct +60 6095; Dec +212 6837; Feb +122 7512

 

Live and feeder cattle futures gapped higher at the open, rallied through the day to close near the day’s highs. Support came from last Friday afternoon’s Cattle on Feed Report which was considered bullish due to fewer cattle than expected were placed in the feedlot in August. August marketings were also strong, so supplies don’t seem to be backing up. Last week’s cash trade averaged $101/cwt, so October futures are fairly priced. In boxed beef, Choice dropped .52 to 216.45 and Select lost .88 to 190.84. Cattle futures look strong on the charts.

Lean Hog futures closed higher to sharply higher as futures rebounded from Friday’s big losses. The turnaround came on clarification about China’s farm visit cancellation. US and China negotiators are fairly optimistic about their discussions. Traders remain hopeful China will make large pork purchases to meet their consumer demand. FOB Plant Pork ended up 103 to 7018, about same as the morning quote. The speculative funds have a sizable long position in LH but it’s only a third of where it was in April after LH futures rallied above $90.00 on China’s ASF losses.  

 

US$ +.2%

Dow +15 26950

SP unch 2992

NAS -5 8112

Tran -72 10383

  VIX -.41  14.91

 

WTI +55 5864

Brent +49 6477

Gas unch 168

NG -1 253

HO +1 200

Eth +1 137

Gold +16 1531

Slvr +86 1871

 

2-yr -.029 1.683%

5-yr -.032 1.602%

10yr -.028 1.725%

30yr -.022 2.176%

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