Market Closes - September 2, 2014

Posted on Sep 2, 2014
CBOT futures closed mixed with soybean meal providing the fuel to power soybean futures higher. Strong demand for cash meal and a tight supply of old-crop soybeans will keep this market interesting until new-crop supplies come in. Soybean basis today is reported 10-85 cents higher on the Central Illinois Soybean Processor Report. But other buyers have done away with premium bids for cash soybeans. One example is at Livingston Point on the Ohio River, where the cash soybean price has fallen a dollar/bushel in the past two weeks while November Soybean futures dropped only 21 cents.

Traders are also concerned that the persistent rainfall in parts of the Corn Belt may be hurting production due to disease pressure – Sudden Death Syndrome has been reported. Perception may exceed reality, but only time and USDA reports will tell the real story. Tonight’s Crop Condition report actually showed improved conditions for the 18 States. A private production estimate out today raised estimates for corn and soybeans; if other analysts raise estimates, prices may be pressured ahead of USDA’s September 11 reports.

Corn Conditions – 18 States  .          Good/Excellent       Poor/V.Poor This Week          74%            7% Last Week          73%            7% Last year           56%           16%

In MATURE stage: 8% vs 16% average

Soybean Conditions – 18 States .          Good/Excellent Poor/V.Poor This Week         72%       6% Last Week         70%       7% Last year           54%       15%

Setting Dropping Leaves: 5% vs 7% average

SPRING Wheat Harvested – 6 States 38% this week versus 61% last year and 65% for 5-year average.

U.S. Pasture: 48% good/excellent vs 48% last week and 38% year ago. 20% poor/v.poor vs 20% last week and 34% year ago. Cattle futures closed moderately to sharply higher on the stronger cash steer prices paid last Friday. The nearby October LC and September FC contracts gapped higher this morning. The October LC contract traded above a down-gap at $153.00 but closed below it. Boxed beef fell slightly with Choice down 0.19 to 246.11/cwt.

The recovery rally in Lean Hog futures continues with the nearby October LH contract gapping higher this morning. This is also a gap-UP on the weekly continuation LH chart. There’s no well-defined chart resistance until a gap down in the $110 area. Last week’s smaller-than-expected slaughter volume supported futures as did the continued rally in the pork cutout value. Today’s FOB Plant value rose .72 to 102.44/cwt.

Outside markets were mostly bearish with energy prices dropping sharply on plentiful oil supplies and weakening EU and China economies. This is strengthening the US dollar which hurts our export competitiveness.

Corn Dec -3 356 (355-360); May -1 385; Dec’15 unch 406 Bean Nov +8 1032 (1020-38); May +6 1053; Nov’15 +5 1042 Meal Oct +9 372; May +5 349 Oil -3 3201 Wheat Dec -7 543; Jly -8 591 (588-601) KC Dec -10 632; MGE -7 623 (Sep +4) Oats Dec +4 347 Rice Nov -5 1261

LC Oct +100 15242; Feb +145 15605; Apr +130 15567 FC Sep +160 22025; Oct +210 21882; Mar +240 21242 LH Oct +175 9987; Dec +140 9340; Apr +85 9240 Milk Sep +31 2426; Oct +31 2318

US$ +.2%

Dow -31 17068 SP -1 2002 NAS +18 4598 Tran +108 8516 VIX +.27 12.25

WTI -270 9326 Brent -219 10060 Gas -7 255 NG -17 389 HO -6 280 Eth unch 203

Gold -21 1267 Slvr -30 1919

2-yr +.036 0.528% 5-yr +.059 1.687% 10yr +.078 2.423% 30yr +.092 3.177%

Blue Grass Stockyards Cattle Report for 09/02/2014 Receipts: 1066 Last Tuesday: 945 Year Ago: 1251 No comparison with yesterday– stockyards closed for Holiday, however compared to last week steer calves sold 2.00 to 5.00 higher with most advance on 500-600 lbs and 700 lbs and up with some weaned calves 6.00 to 8.00 higher on an active market with good to very good demand. Heifer calves under 400 lbs sold steady; over 400 lbs sold 4.00 to 5.00 higher with good to very good demand. Quality was average through attractive. Yearling steers and heifers 5.00 to 8.00 higher with very good demand. Slaughter cows and slaughter bulls sold steady with very good demand. Total supply included 08% slaughter cows, 02% slaughter bulls, 02% replacements and 88% feeders. Feeder supply 39% steers, 18% bulls, 43% heifers with 49% of feeders weighing over 600 lbs.

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Tagged Post Topics Include: Economics, Market updates