As is often the case, the USDA reports moved the CBOT market.  In today’s case, the sharp drop in the 2013/14 carryout forecast caused soybean and soybean meal futures to soar. Because USDA is using a near-record pod weight, many expect that the U.S. soybean crop estimate will be smaller next month. The warm and dry end to the soybean growing season isn’t adding weight and acreage is thought to be less than used in today’s USDA forecast. USDA-FSA will release these figures next week.

Corn futures reacted very bearishly upon release of the reports but the December contract finished 10 cents off the lows. The RECORD large corn crop will need a huge increase in demand for 2013/14 to keep the growing stocks situation from getting worse. USDA increased corn use to 12.675 billion bushels, up from 11.270 billion in 2012/13. Compared to 2012/13, the 2013/14 marketing year has exports up 490 million bushels to 1.225 billion and feed/residual use up 625 million bushels to 5.10 billion.

Wheat futures also reacted negatively to the WASDE, but given the late-day surge in corn and soybean futures, CBOT/KC wheat also moved to the PLUS side in the final minutes of trading. Wheat futures still remain close to key chart support which may hold so long as corn futures don’t drop significantly.

USDA today	USDA last month	Trade Expectation
Corn13.843 billion155.3 bu/ac	13.763 154.4	13.646 153.9
Soybean3.149 billion41.2 bu/ac	3.255 42.6	3.149 41.3
2013/14 Ending Stocks
Corn1.855 billion	1.837	1.697
Soybean150 million	220	161
Wheat561 million	551	556

Cattle futures closed narrowly mixed as traders wait for more direction from cash markets.

Lean Hog futures also ended pit trading with narrow gains/losses. The pork cutout was quoted this afternoon down over a dollar/cwt.  Technically, LH futures look toppy but the funds are long LH futures and are looking for higher prices.

Corn Dec -6 466 (456-73); Jly -6 494; DEC’14 -3 505

Bean Nov +38 1396 (1341-1399); Jly +15 1322; NOV’14 -3 1197 Meal Oct +20 limit 449; Jly +8 410 OIL +6 4278

Wheat Dec +7 642 (625-642); JLY +6 668 KC +7 702; MGE +5 715

Oats -4 318

Rice -4 1553

LC Oct -22 12482; Dec +5 12862; Feb +7 13072 FC Sep +65 15702; Nov +67 15955; Jan +85 15910 LH Oct -10 9020; Dec +2 8727; Apr +20 8695 Milk Sep -7 1816; Oct +5 1828

US$ steady

Dow -26 15300 SP -6 1683 NAS -9 3716 Tran -71 6516 VIX +.47 14.29

WTI +119 10875 Brent +150 11300 Gas +6 277 NG +6 363 HO +6 313 Eth -3.5 185

Gold -43 1321 Slvr -125 2187

2-yr unch 0.45% 5-yr +.01 1.72% 10yr unch 2.91% 30yr unch 3.85%

TOBACCO  CROP  PRODUCTION

	Kentucky	U.S.- 2013	U.S.- 2012
BURLEY YieldProduction	2,000 lbs/ac 156.0 million	1,966 lbs/ac 201.7 million	2,021 204.9 million
Dark, Air-cured YieldProduction	3,000 lbs/ac 12.0 million	2,930 lbs/ac 14.65 million	2,933 15.25 million
Fire-cured YieldProduction	3,500 lbs/ac 36.75 million	3,325 lbs/ac 61.17 million	3,302 53.76 million
Flue-Cured YieldProduction		2,024 lbs/ac 439.2 million	2,296 472.9 million

 

Blue Grass Stockyards Cattle Weekly Summary Report for the week ending 09/10/13 Receipts:  2,728   Last Week:  1,251   Year Ago:  2,894

Compared to last week 400-600 lb steer calves sold 3.00 to 8.00 lower on a mostly average quality offering with light demand. Yearling steers and featherweight calves under 400 lbs sold about steady with good demand.  Heifer calves sold 2.00 to 4.00 lower on an average quality offering. Yearling heifers lightly tested.  Slaughter cows and slaughter bulls sold about steady with good demand.

Total supply included 08% slaughter cows, 02% slaughter bulls, less than 01% replacements and 90% feeders.  Feeder supply 42% steers, 76% bulls, 43% heifers with 54% of feeders weighing over 600 lbs.

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