Market Closes - October 19, 2020

Posted on Oct 19, 2020

Corn Dec +3 405 (401-07); Mar +3 410; Dec21 +2 398

Bean Nov +4 1054 (1048-58); Mar +4 1042; Nov21 +3 973

  Meal Dec +6 373 (369-75)

  Oil -46 3253

Wheat Dec +2 627; Jly +2 611 (603-14)

  KC +4 563; MGE +9 569

Oats +3 297

Rice +7 1245

 

LC Oct -315 10400; Dec -347 10515; Feb -330 10817

FC Oct -350 13460; Jan -410 12522; Mar -392 12492

LH Dec +162 7142; Feb -10 7085; Apr -132 7232

Milk Oct +3 2141; Nov +75 limit 2167; Dec +75 1948

CBOT futures closed higher on continued strong export demand and dry weather concerns for wheat areas and in South America where corn/bean planting is behind schedule. USDA announced two big corn export sales this morning. Both corn and soybean export shipments for 2020/21 are way ahead of year-ago levels.

Nearby Chicago Wheat futures haven’t been this high since December 2014 when futures spiked to $6.77. December SRW is nearing the 50% retracement of the 2012-2016 decline. December Soybean Meal traded new contract highs and high close. The next chart resistance could be the May 2018 high at $405 on the continuation chart.

 

U.S Crop Progress
Corn harvest is 60% complete vs 41% last week and 43% for 5-yr avg
Soybean harvest is 75% complete vs 61% last week and 58% for 5-yr avg

Winter Wheat planted is 77% complete vs 72% for 5-yr avg


U.S Crop Conditions
Crop        Good/Exc   Poor/V.Poor
    (  )change from last week
Pasture      20%(-2)    44%(+4)

 

LC Oct -315 10400; Dec -347 10515; Feb -330 10817

FC Oct -350 13460; Jan -410 12522; Mar -392 12492

LH Dec +162 7142; Feb -10 7085; Apr -132 7232

Live and feeder cattle futures were slaughtered today with $3-4/cwt losses. Today’s selloff was mostly technical in nature based on last week’s market weakness. Today’s drop in LC futures essentially doubled the losses accumulated over the previous five trading days. The spec funds had been sizable longs on the rally from 103.50 to over $110, but as they liquidated it drove futures down sharply. This futures weakness should weigh on the cash markets. Early week trades have been reported at $105-106/cwt live, down $2-3/cwt from last week. Dressed prices have started out at $165-166, down a couple dollars from last week. Beef cutouts have been weakening and today was no different. Choice lost .29 to 209.74 and Select lost 1.68 to 191.84. The Choice-Select spread has widened to 17.90.

Except for the 1.65 gain in the December contract, lean hogs closed lower. December LH was supported by a higher morning cutout and December’s discount to the CME Lean Hog Index. FOB Plant Pork closed down 1.09 to 98.10 due to a 5.95 loss in the value of loins to 85.12. Also weighing on the market included the big cattle losses and last week’s disappointing pork export sales volume.

US$ -.3% 93.40

Dow -411 28195

SP -57 3427

NAS -193 11479

Tran -128 11708

  VIX +1.77 29.18

 

WTI -20 4092

Brent -45 4248

Gas -1 114

NG +2 329

HO -2 116

Eth unch 142

Gold unch 1906

Slvr +7 2447

 

2-yr +.002 0.147%

5-yr +.015 0.333%

10yr +.020 0.764%

30yr +.023 1.552%

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