Market Closes - October 10, 2019
Posted on Oct 10, 2019Corn Dec -14 380 (378-95); Jly -12 402
Bean Nov unch 923 (919-34); Jly unch 968
Meal -2 308 (307-11)
Oi +7 2978 (2955-99)
Wheat Dec -7 493; Jly -6 510 (504-19)
KC -10 403; MGE -6 535
Oats +1 286
Rice +3 1204
LC Oct +25 10872; Feb -2 11727; Apr -25 11950
FC Oct -20 14430; Jan +90 14042; Apr +70 14037
LH Oct -40 6240; Dec -100 6847; Feb -7 7587
Milk Oct -11 1860; Nov -20 1858
CBOT closed steady to lower with corn and wheat falling sharply due to bearish estimates in the monthly USDA crop reports. Soybeans finished steady, having failed to hold a 10-cent rally posted immediately after the USDA numbers came out. USDA forecast average corn yield at 168.4, up from 168.2 in September and 1.9 bu/acre above the average trade guess. USDA also cut 2019/20 exports by 150 million bushels and corn for ethanol by 50 million bushels. The USDA carryout forecast of 1.93 billion bushels is nearly 250 million bushels greater than the average trade estimate. USDA raised its 19/20 season avg price forecast by 20 cents to $3.80/bushel (18/19 avg price was $3.61). Wheat futures followed corn lower as the domestic and world ending stocks estimates increased.
In contrast, soybean futures were supported by the friendly USDA numbers. USDA cut average yield by 1.0 bushel to 46.9 bu/acre; this is below the average trade guess of 47.3. Lower production and 19/20 beginning stocks brought 19/20 ending stocks down to 460 million bushels, or 60 million below the average trade guess. With this tighter stocks situation, USDA raised the season average price for 19/20 to $9.00/bushel, up 50 cents (2018/19 season avg price was $8.48). Soybean meal is now forecast at $325/ton, up $20/ton.
Cattle futures closed narrowly mixed as traders wait to see where fed cattle will trade this week. They expect to see improvement. Choice closed up 1.03 to 215.63 and Select gained 54 to 186.66. The Ch/Sel spread is 28.97, indicating very current marketings from the feedlots. The weekly beef export sales report was negative due to a large cancellation.
Lean Hog futures closed lower and near the day’s lows. Despite a positive weekly export sales report for pork this morning and ongoing trade talks, hog futures could not sustain higher prices. FOB Plant Pork ended 90 higher at 76.91 with loin value up 4% and bellies up nearly 2%. Friday will be an important day to see if a US/China deal including pork is announced.
US$ -.3%
Dow +151 26497
SP +19 2938
NAS +47 7951
Tran +124 10067
VIX -1.07 17.57
WTI +126 5387
Brent +115 5947
Gas +3 162
NG -3 221
HO +1 193
Eth -2 148
Gold -15 1498
Slvr -27 1753
2-yr +.066 1.540%
5-yr +.076 1.485%
10yr +.079 1.666%
30yr +.072 2.158%
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