Market Closes - October 10, 2019

Posted on Oct 10, 2019

Corn Dec -14 380 (378-95); Jly -12 402

Bean Nov unch 923 (919-34); Jly unch 968

  Meal -2 308 (307-11)

  Oi +7 2978 (2955-99)

Wheat Dec -7 493; Jly -6 510 (504-19)

  KC -10 403; MGE -6 535

Oats +1 286

Rice +3 1204

 

LC Oct +25 10872; Feb -2 11727; Apr -25 11950

FC Oct -20 14430; Jan +90 14042; Apr +70 14037

LH Oct -40 6240; Dec -100 6847; Feb -7 7587

Milk Oct -11 1860; Nov -20 1858

CBOT closed steady to lower with corn and wheat falling sharply due to bearish estimates in the monthly USDA crop reports. Soybeans finished steady, having failed to hold a 10-cent rally posted immediately after the USDA numbers came out. USDA forecast average corn yield at 168.4, up from 168.2 in September and 1.9 bu/acre above the average trade guess. USDA also cut 2019/20 exports by 150 million bushels and corn for ethanol by 50 million bushels. The USDA carryout forecast of 1.93 billion bushels is nearly 250 million bushels greater than the average trade estimate. USDA raised its 19/20 season avg price forecast by 20 cents to $3.80/bushel (18/19 avg price was $3.61). Wheat futures followed corn lower as the domestic and world ending stocks estimates increased.

In contrast, soybean futures were supported by the friendly USDA numbers. USDA cut average yield by 1.0 bushel to 46.9 bu/acre; this is below the average trade guess of 47.3. Lower production and 19/20 beginning stocks brought 19/20 ending stocks down to 460 million bushels, or 60 million below the average trade guess. With this tighter stocks situation, USDA raised the season average price for 19/20 to $9.00/bushel, up 50 cents (2018/19 season avg price was $8.48). Soybean meal is now forecast at $325/ton, up $20/ton.

 

Cattle futures closed narrowly mixed as traders wait to see where fed cattle will trade this week. They expect to see improvement. Choice closed up 1.03 to 215.63 and Select gained 54 to 186.66. The Ch/Sel spread is 28.97, indicating very current marketings from the feedlots. The weekly beef export sales report was negative due to a large cancellation. 

Lean Hog futures closed lower and near the day’s lows. Despite a positive weekly export sales report for pork this morning and ongoing trade talks, hog futures could not sustain higher prices. FOB Plant Pork ended 90 higher at 76.91 with loin value up 4% and bellies up nearly 2%. Friday will be an important day to see if a US/China deal including pork is announced.

US$ -.3%

Dow +151 26497

SP +19 2938

NAS +47 7951

Tran +124 10067

  VIX -1.07 17.57

 

WTI +126 5387

Brent +115 5947

Gas +3 162

NG -3 221

HO +1 193

Eth -2 148

Gold -15 1498

Slvr -27 1753

 

2-yr +.066 1.540%

5-yr +.076 1.485%

10yr +.079 1.666%

30yr +.072 2.158%

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