CBOT futures closed lower today ahead of tomorrow’s USDA Crop Production and WASDE reports. Average yields, crop sizes and ending 2015/16 stocks are expected to rise slightly. Exports continue to disappoint in corn and wheat. Soybean futures had limited losses but are still down sharply from week-ago prices. Soybean Meal futures are trending lower. Wheat dropped the hardest due to technical selling as the short-term uptrends were violated. Once we’re past the USDA reports, South American weather will be closely watched.

As of November 8, 2015 Corn Harvested 93% this week vs 78% year ago and 88% for 2010-14 average.

Soybeans Harvested 95% this week vs 89% year ago and 93% for 2010-14 average.

Winter Wheat Planted 92% this week vs 93% year ago and 94% for 2010-14 average.

Live and Feeder Cattle futures closed down the daily price limits of $3.00 and $4.50, respectively. December Live Cattle has lost three-fourths of the $16.00/cwt rally built in October. That leaves $4.00 until we test the contract low @ $128.10 set on October 1. Last week’s very weak cash cattle market (averaged $130.41, down $6) encouraged more futures selling. The recent strength in the US Dollar makes the export market less attractive. And it’s been losing business since June. Choice Beef gained .79 to 216.45 and Select fell .56 to 206.69. Quotes were better than this at midday.

Lean Hog futures also closed sharply lower and made new contract lows. Cash hog weakness and spillover selling from the cattle market weighed on LH. Despite this bearishness, pork values rose. FOB Plant Pork closed up 1.14 to 76.42 as the belly value jumped over 6%, erasing Friday’s loss. FOB Plant was up 1.87 at midday. December LH has lost over $15/cwt, or 20%, since October 21. The nearby LH contract hasn’t been this low since November 2009. The lowest futures price in 2009 was $43.05/cwt (carcass price); that’s about $32.00/cwt LIVE price.

Corn Dec -6 367; Jly -6 387; Dec16 -6 395 Bean Jan -1 866 (866-72); Jly -3 877; Nov -5 874 Meal -1 295 Oil -27 2777 Wheat Dec -21 502; Jly -19 511 KC -16 474; MGE -14 504 Oats unch 224 Rice -38 1205

LC Down 300 limit: Dec 13192; Feb 13415; Apr 13362 FC Down 450 limit: Nov 17712; Jan 16752; Apr 16607 LH Dec -135 5365; -192 5637; Apr -145 6240 Milk Nov -13 1550; Dec -19 1535

 

US$ -.2% Dow -180 17730 SP -21 2079 NAS -52 5095 Tran -26 8215 VIX +2.06 16.39 +14.6%

WTI -18 4411 Brent -8 4734 Gas unch 137 NG -6 231 HO -1 148 Eth -1 151 Gold +4 1091 Slvr -16 1453

2-yr unch 0.890% 5-yr +.003 1.744% 10yr +.020 2.353% 30yr +.027 3.117%