Market Closes - November 8, 2018

Posted on Nov 8, 2018

Corn Dec +1 373 (366-79); Mar +1 385; Dec19 +2 405

Bean Jan unch 879 (864-84); Mar unch 892; Nov +2 931

  Meal -2 306

  Oil -18 2802

Wheat Dec -2 508; Jly -2 540 (534-47)

  KC -5 497; MGE -1 580

Oats unch 287

Rice -8 1061

 

LC Dec +45 11655; Feb +27 11987; Jun +32 11425

FC Nov +25 15017; Jan +45 14627; Apr +17 14555

LH Dec +10 5562; Feb -110 6012; Jun -2 8135

Milk Nov -3 1443; Dec -17 1449

Despite the USDA WASDE report being generally bearish, CBOT futures managed to close near steady. USDA cut the US average yield for corn by 1.8 bu/acre to 178.9 bu/acre, and soybeans by 1.0 bu/acre to 52.1 bu/acre. The cut in US production was bigger than traders expected. However, USDA’s cuts in utilization were also bigger than expected. Corn benefited from a drop in the 18/19 ending stocks estimate of 77 million bushels. Traders ignored USDA raising China’s corn stocks estimate by a huge amount in a rare data update. The large stocks have existed for some time and shouldn’t impact global trade. US soybean production fell 90 million bushels, but exports were cut 160 million; ending stocks were raised 70 million bushels to 955 million bushels (this is a 23% stocks/use ratio). The Chinese trade dispute is seriously impacting the outlook for soybean prices. USDA lowered its estimate of this year’s Chinese soybean imports from 94 mmt to 90 mmt (its imports were near 94 mmt in each of the two past marketing years). YTD, U.S. soybean export shipments to ALL customers is 317 million bushels, down 41 percent from a year ago. Large price discounts on damaged soybeans adds to many farmers’ woes.

Cattle futures closed slightly higher despite a weak boxed beef market. Choice beef dropped 2.15 to 216.07 and Select fell 2.66 to 199.11. Disappointing weekly US Beef Export Sales weighed on futures. Cash trade should develop tomorrow.

Lean Hog futures closed mixed. Nearby December LH futures finished steady despite a falling pork cutout. FOB Plant Pork ended down 1.18 at 71.57 with losses in the values of loins, ribs and bellies.  

The US Dollar Index jumped .5%; this erased about half of the weakness seen the past 5 trading days. A stronger US Dollar is negative for commodity futures.

Crude Oil is in a bear market as U.S. production hit a new record high of 11.6 million barrels/day last week. According to a CNBC article, U.S. output surpasses both Russia and Saudi Arabia. Will either of these countries or OPEC move to cut supply? Nearby WTI Crude futures are down over $16.00 since the October 3 peak near $77.00. Next chart support is at $60, then $58.

US$ +.5% 96.66

Dow +11 26191

SP -7 2807

NAS -40 7531

Tran -54 10661

  VIX +.36 16.72

 

WTI -96 6086

Brent -113 7094

Gas unch 164

NG -1 354

HO -7 217

Eth -1 127

Gold -4

Slvr -15 1442

 

2-yr +.021 2.969%

5-yr +.029 3.090%

10yr +.024 3.237%

30yr +.007 3.433%

“Across Kentucky” podcast  - Click Here

KENTUCKY CASH GRAIN PRICES Click Here

KENTUCKY LIVESTOCK AUCTIONS --  Click Here