Market Closes - November 19, 2014

Posted on Nov 19, 2014
CBOT futures closed sharply lower as it appears that supply-demand fundamentals are changing to also turn some of the technical signals negative. If the speculators turn bearish, additional losses are likely. Fundamentals that suggest prices could weaken include: loss of soybean meal export deals, rumored imports of French feed wheat and Argentinean soymeal, weakening soybean meal basis in the U.S. and improved rainfall in South America. Possibly affecting price action is that December Options on CBOT futures expire Friday; traders often target specific strike prices to minimize losses/maximize gains. Keep an eye on price charts for critical support levels.

Ethanol futures sold off sharply today with the lows set as CBOT Corn was closing. Ethanol was getting overpriced relative to gasoline, with the two prices nearly equal yesterday. Since November 3, gas is down 11 cents while December Ethanol was up 30 cents before today. Surprisingly, the EIA report showed near record ethanol production but a 2+ percent drop in stocks.

Cattle futures closed little changed as traders wait for the fed market to get priced; probably won’t happen until Friday. Choice carcasses up 0.50 at 254.79; Select up 0.79 at 242.05. Tomorrow is the last day for trading November Feeder Cattle futures & options. The Cattle on Feed Report comes out Friday afternoon.

Lean Hog futures managed slightly higher closes despite weakness in hogs and pork. FOB Plant Pork closed down 1.52 to 92.64/cwt on sharp losses in loins and picnics. The recent peak came last Thursday at 96.24. With Live Cattle futures at record highs, traders have had a bullish bias in hog futures.

Corn Dec -9 363 (low 363); May -9 385; Dec15 -9 407 Bean Jan -18 1005 (low 1004); May -19 1018; Nov -18 992 Meal Dec -8 370; May -7 336 Oil -14 3251 Wheat Dec -11 538; Jly -10 553 (low 550) KC -7 586; MGE -7 571 Oats -7 326 Rice +40 1240

LC Dec unch 17082; Feb +22 17230; Jun +7 16117 FC Nov +12 24055; Jan -17 23710; Mar -27 23532 LH Dec +22 9177; Feb +52 9165; Apr +65 9360 Milk Dec +24 1859; Jan +11 1735

US$ +.1%

Dow -2 17686 SP -3 2049 NAS -27 4676 Tran -29 9013 VIX +.10 13.96

WTI -30 7434 Brent -30 7817 Gas unch 204 NG +15 439 HO -2 236 Eth -19 187 -9% Gold -15 1182 Slvr -6 1611

2-yr +.017 0.525% 5-yr +.037 1.647% 10yr +.039 2.361% 30yr +.034 3.079%

October Milk Production up 3.9 Percent Milk production in the 23 major States during October totaled 16.0 billion pounds, up 3.9 percent from October 2013. September revised production, at 15.5 billion pounds, was up 4.3 percent from September 2013. The September revision represented an increase of 22 million pounds or 0.1 percent from last month's preliminary production estimate.

Production per cow in the 23 major States averaged 1,868 pounds for October, 51 pounds above October 2013. This is the highest production per cow for the month of October since the 23 State series began in 2003.

The number of milk cows on farms in the 23 major States was 8.59 million head, 89,000 head more than October 2013, and 3,000 head more than September 2014.

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Tagged Post Topics Include: Economics, Market updates