Market Closes - November 18, 2013

Posted on Nov 18, 2013
Corn futures fell sharply as fund selling weighed on the market, especially after price fell below the November low.  December Corn is now within striking distance of the contract low of $3.985. Traders ignored last week’s strong export inspections in light of Friday’s EPA ethanol announcement.

Soybean and meal futures rallied on fund buying after Friday’s huge selloff. Last week’s export inspections estimate of 88 million bushels was above expectations (some reports indicate it’s the largest on record). The January 2014 Soybean contract has traded 12.47 to 13.215 in the past 10 trading days.

Nationally, harvest progress is 91 pct for corn and 95 pct for soybeans; this compares to year ago rates of 99 pct for corn and 98 pct for soybeans.  5-year average rates are 86 pct on corn and 96 pct for soybeans.

Wheat futures traded higher Sunday night but eventually succumbed to the bearish corn trade to close slightly lower at the day’s lows.  Critical chart support is ever closer for KC/CBOT while the MGEX December contract moved to new contract lows.

Winter Wheat (emerged) is rated 63 pct good or excellent, down from 65 pct last week.  A year ago, this rating was 34 pct.

Cattle futures dropped sharply today on apparent technical selling. December is now in line with last week’s cash trade. The collapse happened late morning on heavy volume. Remember that the large funds have been quite long Live Cattle futures.  The December LC contract bottomed at chart support posted a month ago at $131.32. If this support is broken, there’s no obvious support until 128.00, although 130.00 could catch it.  Boxed beef values were mixed this afternoon: Choice down 0.60 at 200.56 and Select up 1.27 at 189.71/cwt.

Lean Hog futures posted small losses, giving up Friday’s small gains. LH futures have traded narrow ranges the past 3 days.  Cash hog and pork values traded opposite directions again today keeping futures traders uncertain. Corn Dec -10 412; Jly -9 437; Dec14 -8 451 Bean Jan +7 1287; Jly +10 1255; Nov -2 1151 Meal Dec +5 416; Jly +6 390 Oil -36 4011 Wheat Dec -2 642; Jly -3 653 KC -4 694; MGE -1 695 Oats +1 344 Rice +8 1584

LC Dec -150 13190; Feb -160 13320; Jun -135 12762 FC Nov -30 16485; Jan -152 16430; Apr -95 16500 LH Dec -30 8560; Feb -37 8990; Jun -35 9830 Milk Nov unch 1882; Dec -8 1790

US$ -.1% Dow +14 15976 SP -7 1792 NAS -37 3949 Tran -25 7187 VIX +.91 13.10  +7.5% All 3 major stock indexes hit new record highs today. However, the SP500 and NASDAQ charted bearish reversals.  The VIX (fear measure) spiked on worries about a market correction.

WTI -81 9303 Brent -29 10821 Gas unch 266 NG -4 362 HO -2 292 Eth +3 180

Gold -12 1275 Slvr -32 2040

2-yr -.02 0.29% 5-yr -.04 1.31% 10yr -.03 2.67% 30yr -.05 3.75%

Blue Grass Stockyards Cattle Auction Report for 11/18/2013

Receipts:  1,187   Last Monday:  2,787   Year Ago:  1,566

Compared to last week steer calves sold steady to firm with good demand.  Heifer calves sold steady to 2.00 higher, except lightweight calves under 500 lbs sold 5.00 to 10.00 higher early with most advance for 300-400 lbs.  Market less active for lightweight heifers late as orders were filled by close of sale.

Quality was good to attractive with many attractive heifer packages.  Yearling steers sold firm in a light test with very good demand.  Yearling heifers untested.  Slaughter bulls sold steady with light demand.  Slaughter cows sold 1.00 to 3.00 higher with moderate demand.  Heavy rain over the weekend restricted cattle movement today.

Total supply included 08% slaughter cows, less than 01% slaughter bulls, Less than 01% replacements and 91% feeders.  Feeder supply 37% steers, 20% bulls, 43% heifers with 44% of feeders weighing over 600 lbs

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