Market Closes - November 10, 2020

Posted on Nov 10, 2020

Corn Dec +15 423 (406-27); Mar +16 431; Dec21 +8 406

Bean Jan +35 1146 (1108-53);Mar +35 1144; Nov +17 1025

  Meal +11 395 (384-401)

  Oil +58 3606

Wheat Dec +11 608; Jly +11 614 (600-15)

  KC +9 561; MGE +7 561

Oats +4 307

Rice Jan +5 1244

 

LC Dec +5 11187; Feb +2 11510; Apr -10 11827

FC Nov -77 14085; Jan -32 14040; Mar -40 13955

LH Dec -47 6512; Feb -87 6657; Apr -22 7042

Milk Nov +34 2380; Dec +75 limit 1981; Jan +59 1838

 

Most CBOT futures exploded to the upside on bullish USDA Crop Production and Supply/Demand reports. Today’s midday USDA estimates for smaller yields, smaller crops and tighter carryout stocks surprised the market. For the U.S. the average corn yield is estimated at 175.8 bu/acre, down 2.6 bushels from October and nearly 2 bu/acre below the average trade guess. In soybeans, the U.S. yield is estimated at 50.7 bu/acre, down 1.2 bushels from October and 0.9 bu/acre below the average trade guess. For both corn and soybeans, the 2020 yields are well above their 2019 comparisons – corn up 8.3 bu/acre and soybeans up 3.3 bu/acre. Adding to today’s bullish data was a tightening of the 2020/21 ending stocks forecasts for both the U.S. and the World. For corn, USDA raised corn export projections by 325 million bushels to a RECORD 2.65 billion bushels. This includes a 236 million boost in forecasted exports to China. All told, the U.S. 20/21 ending stocks forecast is now 1.702 billion bushels, down from 2.167 in October and over 300 million below the average trade guess. In soybeans, USDA did not change the export forecast, so the smaller production forecast resulted in a 20/21 ending stocks forecast of 190 million bushels, down 100 million bushels from October and around 45 million bushels lower than the average trade guess. The 190 million bushel carryout would be the smallest in six years. These new supply-demand forecasts resulted in higher 2021/21 Average Farm Price forecasts for corn, up 40 cents to $4.00/bushel (2019 = $3.56) and for soybeans, up 60 cents to $10.40/bushel (2019 = $8.57).

Today’s Kentucky crop estimates had corn at 181.0 bu/acre, unchanged from October and soybeans at 55.0 bu/acre, unchanged from last month. According to USDA/NASS, both are record high for Kentucky.

LC Dec +5 11187; Feb +2 11510; Apr -10 11827

FC Nov -77 14085; Jan -32 14040; Mar -40 13955

LH Dec -47 6512; Feb -87 6657; Apr -22 7042

Cattle futures closed mixed with live cattle slightly higher and feeder cattle down marginally. Live cattle paused after Monday’s sharp gains based on the COVID vaccine news. Today’s strong beef market should be supportive tomorrow. Feeder futures were pressured by the surge in CBOT futures. Choice beef gained 4.86 to 222.25 and Select jumped 6.18 to 208.55. A week ago, Choice was 209.44 and Select was 198.46. Negotiated cash trade is not established.

Lean hog futures ended the day mixed with Dec/Feb/April lower and deferred contracts higher. FOB Plant Pork finished down 2.71 at 82.98 on a sharp drop of 11.20 in the ham value to 84.21. Load count was high.

 

US$ -.1% 92.71

Dow +263 29421

SP -5 3546

NAS -160 11554

Tran +196 12096

  VIX -.95 24.80

 

WTI +151 4181

Brent +163 4403

Gas +4 120

NG +9 295

HO +5 126

Eth +4 144

Gold +22 1876

Slvr +59 2429

2-yr unch  0.183%

5-yr +.004 0.451%

10yr -.002 0.956%

30yr -.009 1.742%

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