Market Closes - May 6, 2013

Posted on May 6, 2013
CBOT futures were led lower by corn futures due to weather forecasts on Sunday that suggested corn planting would accelerate. Tonight’s 6-10 & 8-14 day maps are much drier and warmer than previous ones. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/index.php

U.S. crop progress stats are printed below the financial quotes below.

While corn planting at 12 pct is slower than traders expected, today’s bearish trade is not likely to reverse as long as the forecasts stay drier. The funds had been moving toward a short position before they started buying on the wet forecasts. The 5-day, 60-cent rally in July Corn is more than half gone; July chart support is $6.10.

Due to tighter supply/demand conditions, the soy complex had smaller losses. And new-crop gained on old-crop soybeans since improved corn planting conditions should keep acreage from switching to soybeans.

Wheat futures were pressured by corn’s sharp declines and last week’s crop tour yield estimate for KS wheat. Tonight’s drop in the condition of the Winter Wheat crop may help wheat relative to corn futures. Friday’s bearish chart action was confirmed today with a “gap down”; July has support at $6.88, then $6.65.

Traders’ attention will be turning to Friday’s USDA supply-demand update (WASDE).

Cattle futures started the morning higher on last Friday’s strong boxed beef market (set new RECORD HIGH), but turned down mid-morning probably as traders heard wholesale beef values were declining. The closing quotes are Choice DN 1.42 at 200.26; Select DN 0.52 at 189.61. News reports that Tyson has seen consumers switching to chicken didn’t help. If the warmer, drier forecasts turn out accurate, grilling demand for steak and chops might pick up. Feeder cattle had limited losses given the sharp drop in CBOT futures.

Note that June Live Cattle futures at $121 is about $8/cwt discount to last week’s cash trade. The spread between cash and futures should begin to narrow into late May.

Lean Hog futures succumbed to the downdraft in cattle futures and by weaker pork values today. Deferred LH contracts were hit the hardest due to declining CBOT futures.

Corn Jly -25 636.5; Sep -19.5 560; Dec -15 538 Bean Jly -18 1369; Sep -16 1250; Nov -14 1207    Meal Jly -5 401; Oct -5 340.5   Oil -51 4876 Wheat Jly -18 703; Dec -16.5 729   KC -21 757; MGE -13 806 Oats -9 379 Rice +15 1551

LC Jun -52 12130; Oct -77 12452; Dec -95 12595 FC May -37 13840; Aug -5 14745; Oct -50 15075 LH May -35 9105; Jly -105 9125; Oct -122 8085 Milk May -2 1868; Jun -6 1885

US$ +.25% Dow -5 14969 SP +3 1617 NAS +14 3393 Tran +79 6298    VIX -.19 12.66

WTI +21 9582 Brent +119 10538 Gas +3 286 NG -5 399 HO +3 292 Eth -4 252

Gold +5 1469 Slvr -3 2398

2-yr unch 0.21% 5-yr +.01 0.74% 10yr +.02 1.76% 30yr +.02 2.98%

 CORN Planted in 18 major States:    12 pct compared to 69 pct last year and 47 pct for 2008-2012 average.

CORN Emergence:   3 pct compared to 29 pct last year and 15 pct on average.

Soybeans Planted in 18 major States:   2 pct vs 22 pct last year and 12 pct on average.  

Winter Wheat crop conditions deteriorated from last week.   Good/Excellent: 32 pct, down 1 point.   Poor/Very Poor: 39 pct, up 4 points.  

Spring Wheat Planted in 6 States:   23 pct, down from 82 pct a year ago and the 5-yr average of 50 pct.

48-state Pasture Conditions:   Good/Excellent: 32 pct compared to 54 pct a year ago.   Poor/Very Poor: 36 pct compared to 17 pct a year ago.

Blue Grass Stockyards    Cattle Auction Report for 05/06/2013 Receipts:  571   Last Monday:  1,125   Year Ago:  815     Compared to last week, steer calves sold mostly steady with good demand.  Heifer calves sold mostly steady with good demand, except 400-500 lbs 3.00 lower with moderate demand.  Average to good quality calves today.  Yearling steers and yearling heifers no test.  Slaughter cows sold 4.00 higher with good demand.  Slaughter bulls sold 2.00 higher with good demand.  Heavy rain over the weekend slowed cattle movement today.     Total supply included 07% slaughter cows, 01% slaughter bulls, less than 01% replacements and 91% feeders.  Feeder supply 28% steers, 27% bulls, 45% heifers with 33% of feeders weighing over 600 lbs. 

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