Market Closes - May 5, 2014

Posted on May 5, 2014
Wheat futures put in the best performance today, even after seeing heavy selling in the final minutes of trading.  The concern about the southern Plains wheat crop deteriorating was confirmed in this afternoon’s USDA update (see below).  This week’s excessive heat and little/no rain expected, these ratings will likely worsen by next Monday.  All 3 exchanges saw new highs in the JULY contracts. The slow pace of planting Spring Wheat is supportive; then, add in the long-term outlook for below-normal temperatures for the northern Plains and Corn Belt. Wheat bulls are feeling good.  Oh, did I mention the Ukraine/Russia situation. The spec funds have room to build upon their wheat long.

Corn futures closed strongly higher and near the day’s highs.  Support came from the wheat market, very good corn export inspections, and a correction of last Thurs/Fri’s sharp price drop.  Corn has a ways to go to turn the charts positive.

Soybean futures had a disappointing day with old-crop losing ground to new-crop as traders think more Brazilian beans are headed to the U.S. to cure the tight supply situation for the 2013-14 marketing year.

Corn Planting Progress .    5/4/14   5-yr average U.S.    29%        42% KY      39%        52%

Soybean Planting Progress U.S.     5%         11% KY       2%          8%

Winter Wheat Conditions – 18 States .        Good/Excellent  Poor/V.Poor This Week       31%           38% Last Week       33%           34% Last year       32%           39% Rated Poor/V.Poor: TX-64%, OK-73%, KS-47%, CO-37%

Spring Wheat: 26% planted vs 21% year ago and 41% on average.

U.S. Pasture: 39% good/excellent vs 32% year ago. 22% poor/v.poor vs 36% year ago. Cattle futures closed mostly lower in follow-through selling from Friday’s bearish price reversal that ensued after feedlots sold cattle for less money than expected. Today’s beef market didn’t offer any reason to buy futures. Choice 1-3 600-900 lbs carcasses up 0.52 at 228.90; Select 1-3 600-900 lbs carcasses down 2.02 at 215.45. Lean Hog futures closed pit-trade mixed but have traded higher through the afternoon when hog and pork prices were reported higher.  FOB Plant Pork rose 2.05 to 116.02/cwt.

Corn Jly +8 508; Dec +6 500 (492-500) Bean Jly -7 1463; Aug -1 1406; Nov +5 1227 (1221-32) Meal Jly -2 479; Oct +2 392 Oil -34 4117 Wheat Jly +13 729 (721-40); Dec +12 750 KC +10 832; MGE +14 789 Oats +2 352 Rice +2 1551

LC Jun -52 13752; Oct -25 14147 FC May -85 18265; aug -52 18980; Oct -65 19067 LH May -32 11690; Jun +12 12235; Oct +97 10400 Milk May +6 2281; Jun -12 2143

US$ steady

Dow +18 16530 SP +4 1885 NAS +14 4138 Tran -23 7676 VIX +.38 13.29

WTI -38 9938 Brent -115 10744 Gas -4 290 NG +2 470 HO -2 290 Eth -4 210

Gold +7 1310 Slvr +7 1956

2-yr -.01 0.42% 5-yr unch 1.68% 10yr +.01 2.61% 30yr +.03 3.40%

Blue Grass Stockyards Cattle Auction Report for 05/05/2014 Receipts:  1240   Last Monday:  1439   Year Ago:  571

Compared to last week steer calves sold steady to 2.00 higher on an active market very good demand for featherweight calves. Heifer calves under 500 lbs sold 5.00 to 10.00 higher with exceptionally good demand; over 500 lbs sold steady with good demand.  Yearling cattle lightly tested.  Quality was average through attractive.  Slaughter cows and slaughter bulls sold steady good demand.

Total supply included 08% slaughter cows, 01% slaughter bulls, 01% replacements and 90% feeders.  Feeder supply 35% steers, 28% bulls, 37% heifers with 32% of feeders weighing over 600 lbs.

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Tagged Post Topics Include: Economics, Market updates