Market Closes - May 3, 2013

Posted on May 3, 2013
While outside markets were “friendly” today, agricultural futures closed mostly lower except for the Soy Complex. Traders are focused on weather and corn planting progress. Monday afternoon’s NASS report should show corn planting remaining way, way behind normal. However, forecasts suggest the Corn Belt could see more normal temperatures the week of May 12 – but the eastern CB will continue with above-normal rain. See NWS Maps at http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/index.php

Soybean oil futures lifted soybean futures today as crude oil surged higher; soybean’s strength also comes from continued tightness in the cash market. Soybeans traded a very wide range, starting the day at the lows and rallying until noon when a profit-taking sell-off occurred.

Wheat futures closed within a nickel of the day’s lows after a volatile trading session. The Kansas wheat tour found freeze damage but still estimated the average HRW yield at 41.1 bu/acre which is comparable to the 2012 final yield. Both Chicago and KC July wheat contracts charted “outside down days” which is technically bearish.

Next week, traders will begin to guess what the May 10th USDA Supply-Demand update will say.

Cattle futures took an unexpected turn down today despite no weakness in the boxed beef market and a surging U.S. stock market in response to a better-than-expected jobs report. This may have been end-of-week profit taking to move investments into equities. How well beef moves out of the meat case this weekend could direct the market Monday. Choice UP 1.10 at 201.68; Select DN 0.51 at 190.13.

Lean Hog futures closed mostly lower in apparent follow-through to Thursday’s late-day weakness. Given futures’ premium to the cash market, this is not surprising. However, LH futures still are near the top of the range traded the past 2.5 months. The May contract closed at its highest price since February 15 and is $6.00 above the mid-April low.

U.S. equities shot to new record highs today with the Dow surpassing 15,000 and the SP500 Index topping 1600. Treasury yields jumped higher as investors moved to “risk on” investments. Investors ignored negative news in the ISM non-manufacturing index falling to 53.1 from 54.4 a month earlier, and a 4 pct drop in factory orders as reported by the Commerce Dept.

Corn Jly -1 661; Sep -4.5 579; Dec -5.5 553.5 Bean Jly +15 1387; Sep +18 1266; Nov +17 1221 Meal Jly unch 406; Oct +5 345 Oil +78 4927 Wheat Jly -7.5 721 (716.5-735); Dec -7 745 KC Jly -13 778; MGE -6 819 Oats +2 388 Rice +10 1535

LC Jun -182 12182; Oct -170 12530; Dec -157 12690 FC May -182 13877; Aug -215 14750; Oct -170 15125 LH May +10 9140; Jly -72 9230; Oct -22 8207 Milk May +1 1870; Jun -40 1891

 US$ -.15% Dow +142 14974 SP +17 1614 NAS +38 3379 Tran +125 6219   VIX -.74 12.85

WTI +154 9553 Brent +132 10417 Gas +4 282 NG +2 405 HO +3 288 Eth +4 256

Gold +2 1470 Slvr +25 2408

2-yr +.02 0.22% 5-yr +.08 0.72% 10yr +.11 1.74% 30yr +.13 2.96%

Kentucky Weekly Livestock Summary for 26 through 2 May, 2013 This Week   Last Week  Last Year      23,405      23,387     18,296

Compared to last week:  Steers and Heifers mostly 3.00-5.00 higher. Demand good for all classes.  Kentucky finally got a string of days that are reminiscent of Spring weather, which helped turn the state green for Derby week.  Many local producers have taken advantage of recent upswings in the market to cash in their yearlings.  Restocking those accounts however, has been somewhat stagnant with the roller coaster of weather and temperatures.  The first real signs of consistent warm weather and green grass has spurred a renewed interest in the calf market.  Warm weather is also a key factor in end product demand as consumers pull the grill out of hibernation and venture to the store for beef; this push in temps has aided in a push in higher prices with the Choice cutout closing over $200/cwt yesterday.  Slaughter Cows and Bulls steady to firm. 

Supply:  Slaughter Cows 10 percent; Slaughter Bulls 3 percent; Feeder cattle 85 percent.  In the feeder supply, Steers made up approximately 45 percent and Heifers approximately 38 percent.  Steers and Heifers over 600 lbs totaled approximately 58 percent.  Replacement cattle 2 percent. 

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Tagged Post Topics Include: Economics, Market updates