Market Closes - May 16, 2013

Posted on May 16, 2013
 

Corn futures closed lower on weak export sales and rapid planting progress this week (although arriving rain will take many out of the field).  Corn was also weighed on by another day of losses in the CBOT Wheat pit.  Given a lack of production problems around the globe, wheat supplies may need to price in more feed usage.

Technically, July Chicago Wheat broke down through trendline support yesterday, followed by trades today below the late April lows.  The next support is 6.65.  Kansas City HRW July contract didn’t break down technically as much as Chicago SRW July. Traders will soon have harvest pressure on their mind.

Soybean futures stood alone in the PLUS column.  July closed up sharply on the tight supply situation with extremely high basis levels.  New-crop benefitted from ideas farmers have had a good week of corn planting. The July Soybean contract topped out at the 200-day moving average.

 NOTE: The new-crop Soybean/Corn price ratio is about 2.4 at Ohio River grain elevators.

For what it’s worth, the June-August 2013 outlook from NOAA indicates normal to above normal temperatures for the Corn Belt as well as mostly normal precipitation, on average.  See maps at http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=1

Cattle futures closed slightly lower even as the Choice Cutout value hits new highs -- Choice up 0.82 at 208.77; Select down 0.04 at 192.71.  Some cattle sold for $125/cwt today, down $1 from last week.  Traders may have to see how beef demand holds up after Memorial Day before they will push CME futures higher.

Lean Hog futures closed higher supported by rising cash hog prices and surging pork values. The Pork Cutout was up 1.43 to $93.36/cwt, lifted by prices of bellies and ribs. McDonald’s said they are adding more bacon to their menu, but this would have been contracted before telling the world.

Competition from chicken has declined due to a reduction in its price advantage over pork/beef.  Today’s Daily Livestock Report by the CME Group stated the following:    “Boneless-skinless breasts reached an average of $1.87 per pound last week, over 30% higher than at the beginning of April. That price represents the highest weekly average price for this product since August 2004 — almost nine years ago. Last week’s price was 29.5% higher than one year ago.”    They credit KFC’s new boneless chicken products and higher exports to Russia.  On the other hand, wing prices have dropped sharply.  The Georgia Dock broiler price was record-high last week at $103.73, up 11 pct from a year ago, according to the CME newsletter.

US equity indexes closed lower on a late-day sell-off blamed on some Federal Reserve leaders talking about tapering the bond-buying program in the coming months.

Corn Jly -9 641.5; Sep -10 554; Dec -8 524 Bean Jly +15 1427.5; Sep +9 1271.5; Nov +8 1217.5 Meal Jly +4 415; Dec +2 342 Oil +17 4930 Wheat Jly -6 688; Sep -6 696; Dec -5.5 713 KC -8 743; MGE -2 796 Oats -2 378 Rice +5 1528

LC Jun -10 11990; Oct -5 12287; Dec -20 12427 FC May -5 13502; Aug -17 14512; Oct -12 14922 LH Jun +95 9287; Aug +40 9090; Oct +30 8055 Milk May +1 1851; Jun +29 1840

US$ unch Dow -42 15233 SP -8 1650 NAS -6 3465 Tran -52 6468 VIX +.26 13.07

WTI +86 9516 (low 9323) Brent +12 10380 Gas +1 288 NG -13 394 HO +3 291 Eth -.6 263

Gold -12 1384 (low 1368) Slvr -2 2263 (low 2206)

2-yr -.01 0.23% 5-yr -.04 0.79% 10yr -.06 1.88% 30yr -.06 3.10%

Kentucky FSA Urges Producers to Enroll in DCP/ACRE     May 16, 2013 — USDA Farm Service Agency (FSA) Kentucky State Executive Director,  John W. McCauley today encouraged farmers and ranchers to enroll for the 2013 Direct and Counter-Cyclical Payment Program (DCP) or the Average Crop Revenue Election Program (ACRE) before the deadline. Producers who wait until the last minute to sign up could face increased waiting time in FSA county offices. The sign-up for both programs began Feb. 19, 2013. The deadline to sign up for ACRE is June 3, 2013. The DCP sign up period ends Aug. 2, 2013. The 2013 DCP and ACRE program provisions are unchanged from 2012, except that all eligible participants in 2013 may choose to enroll in either DCP or ACRE for the 2013 crop year. This means that eligible producers who were enrolled in ACRE in 2012 may elect to enroll in DCP in 2013 or may re-enroll in ACRE in 2013 (and vice versa). For more information about the programs and loans administered by FSA, visit any FSA county office or www.fsa.usda.gov.

Blue Grass Stockyards Cattle Weekly Summary Report for the week ending 05/14/13

Receipts:  2,248   Last Week:  2,008   Year Ago:  2,259 Compared to last week, steer and heifer calves sold mostly steady with good demand except few featherweight steers 5.00 to 10.00 higher in a light test.  Mostly good to attractive quality calves.  Yearling steers sold steady to 3.00 lower with light to moderate demand. Yearling heifers sold steady with good demand.  Slaughter cows sold 1.00 to 2.00 higher with very good demand.  Slaughter bulls sold steady with good demand.

Total supply included 07% slaughter cows, 02% slaughter bulls, 01% replacements and 90% feeders.  Feeder supply 40% steers, 19% bulls, 41% heifers with 52% of feeders weighing over 600 lbs.

KENTUCKY CASH GRAIN BIDS Click Here

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