CBOT futures closed lower following release of USDA’s WASDE report which updated ending stocks estimates. Actual estimates were mostly near the average trade estimate published ahead of the report. The biggest difference came in the 2013/14 soybean carryout of 265 million bushels, above the average guess of 236 million (this is up from 125 million for 2012/13).

CROP      2012/13     2013/14 Corn          759 mil.    2004 million bushels Soybean   125 mil.        265 million Wheat       731 mil.       639 million

2013/14 Corn Production is estimated by USDA at a record-high 14.1 billion bushels on a yield of 158 bu/acre (below trend due to slow planting pace).

2013/14 Soybean Production is assumed to be 3.39 billion bushels on an average yield of 44.5 bu/acre which is trendline yield.

All CBOT contracts fell sharply in the 15 minutes following the report’s release, but corn and soybean futures were able to recover some of those losses.  However, soybean meal and wheat closed near the day’s lows. Outside market action was bearish for commodities.  Higher-than-expected 2013/14 global wheatproduction and ending stocks estimates probably caused the severe losses in wheat futures.

Cattle futures closed mixed with the June Live Cattle slipping on a weaker fed steer market this week (down $2 to $126/cwt) despite a record high Choice Cutout value on Thursday of $205.49/cwt. Today, Choice beef was down 0.51 at 204.98; Select UP 0.17 at 191.20. Feeder Cattle futures rallied on falling CBOT futures.

Despite recent strength in cash hog and pork values, Lean Hog futures are trading more cautiously.  The June LH contract is almost $3/cwt below the spring high set on May 2. Today the Pork Cutout was up 70 to 89.87/cwt.

May Lean Hog futures and options expire next Tuesday, as do the May CBOT futures contracts.

Treasury yields increased sharply today with the 10-year note hitting a 6-week high amid limited signs the U.S. economy may be improving.  The 30-year bond yield closed at 3.09 pct, after reaching 3.13 pct, the highest since April 1, 2013.

Corn May -7 688; Jly -12.5 636 (625-648);       Sep -11.5 554.5; Dec -12 529.5 (523-540) Bean May -3 1488; Jly -10 1399 (1390-1419);        Sep -10 1254; Nov -13.5 1205.5 (1197-1224)   Meal Jly -6 407; Oct -5 340    Oil +1 4923 (4860-4951) Wheat May -19 697; Jly -19 704 (702-724); Dec -18 730     KC -20.5 759; MGE -17 809 Oats -4 378 Rice -9 1525

LC Jun -10 12045; Oct +17 12392; Dec +37 12567 FC May -37 13537; Aug +65 14662; Oct +97 15075 LH May unch 9200; Jly -32 9090; Oct -40 8060 Milk May -3 1855; Jun -30 1808

US$ +.5% Dow +36 15118 SP +7 1634 NAS +27 3437 Tran +36 6375 VIX -.54 12.59

WTI -35 9604 (low 9337) Brent -83 10364 (low 10156) Gas -2.5 286 NG -7 391 HO -3 291 Eth -2 261

Gold -32 1437 Slvr -25 2366

2-yr +.02 0.24% 5-yr +.06 0.81% 10yr +.09 1.90% 30yr +.08 3.09% 

KENTUCKY FARMERS EXPECT A GOOD WHEAT CROP   Kentucky farmers expect to harvest 37.0 million bushels of winter wheat during 2013 according to the Kentucky Field Office of USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service. The expected crop for 2013 would be up 27 percent from the previous year. Improved wheat prices, along with strong soybean prices for those who intend to double crop, encouraged farmers to seed 680,000 acres last fall with 560,000 acres to be harvested for grain.   Based on crop conditions as of May 1 and assuming a normal growing season, farmers expect a yield of 66 bushels per acre, up 4 bushels from 2012. Acres for other uses totaled 120,000 acres and will be used as cover crop for tobacco or cut as silage or hay.

U.S. Winter Wheat Production Down 10 Percent from 2012   Winter wheat production is forecast at 1.49 billion bushels, down 10 percent from 2012. Area harvested for grain is forecast at 32.7 million acres, down 6 percent from last year. As of May 1, the United States yield is forecast at 45.4 bushels per acre, down 1.8 bushels from the previous year.   Hard Red Winter production, at 768 million bushels, is down 23 percent from a year ago. Soft Red Winter, at 501 million bushels, is up 19 percent from 2012. White Winter, at 217 million bushels, is down 2 percent from a year ago. Of the White Winter production, 11.4 million bushels are Hard White and 205 million bushels are Soft White.

FINAL BURLEY PRODUCTION ESTIMATES   The final production estimate of Kentucky burley tobacco for 2012 was 152 million pounds, up 19 percent from the 128 million pounds produced in 2011. Average yield was 2,050 pounds per acre, up 50 pounds from the 2011 crop. Acreage harvested was 74,000 acres, up 10,000 acres from 2011. Average price per pound was estimated at $1.97 per pound, up 22 cents from the previous year.   Burley production for the burley producing States totaled 205 million pounds, 19 percent above 2011.  Six states make up the burley producing states.  Kentucky, the leading producer of burley tobacco, produced 74 percent of all burley grown in the United States.

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