Market Closes - May 1, 2014

Posted on May 1, 2014
CBOT futures fell sharply today on fund selling with the soy old-crop soy contracts leading the way down. Technically, the July contracts for corn, soybeans and CBOT wheat all have obvious “double top” formations.  The bearish fundamentals that got the ball rolling downhill included the export soybean sales report, apparent increase in China cancelling nearby purchases, and forecasts that might increase corn planting in the Corn Belt through the weekend.

The Kansas wheat tour finished today and forecast KS wheat yield at 33.2 bu/acre, compared to last year’s tour average of 41.1 bu/acre.  A crop of 260 million bushels would be the lowest total since 1996.

Cattle futures were soaring today with limit-up moves in Feeder Cattle. This happened even as wholesale beef values slid sharply. Choice Beef dropped 2.76 to 230.34 and Select lost 1.31 to 220.98/cwt.  The nearby JUNE LC contract finished above the old contract high set in March.  However, June has a long way to go to get to the expiration price of the April LC contract and current cash prices. Feeder Cattle futures are overbought so be careful.

Lean Hog futures closed mixed with nearby contracts down slightly as cash pork values dropped sharply.  FOB Plant Pork -2.02 to 113.78 with sharp losses in picnic, rib and belly values. Losses may have been limited by the soaring cattle futures market.

While the stock market was lackluster today, Treasury yields continued to drop in front of tomorrow’s important Jobs report.  Most of the week’s economic news has been negative.  The 10-year yield peaked at 2.726% on Tuesday and ended today below 2.60%.

Corn Jly -12 507 (504-21); Dec -10 499 (497-512) Bean Jly -52 1461 (1460-1512); Nov -21 1225 (1223-47) Meal Jly -17 477; Oct -6 393 Oil -95 4116 Wheat Jly -14 707 (701-24); Dec -13 730 KC -8 804;  MGE -7 761 Oats -7 353 Rice -4 1551

LC Jun +205 13925; Aug +250 13857; Dec +237 14435 FC May +275 18395; Aug +300 limit 19047; Oct +300 19097 LH May -30 11737; Jun -32 12280; Oct +105 10395 Milk May +24 2279; Jun +48 2170

US$ unch

Dow -22 16559 SP unch 1884 NAS +13 4127 Tran +47 7719 VIX -.16 13.25

WTI -51 9923 Brent -37 10770 Gas -3 293 NG -8 473 HO -2 291 Eth -9 217

Gold -12 1284 Slvr -10 1901

2-yr -.01 0.41% 5-yr -.02 1.66% 10yr -.035 2.61% 30yr -.05 3.41%

Blue Grass Stockyards Cattle Weekly Summary Report for the week ending 04/29/14 Receipts:  2,594   Last Week:  2,747   Year Ago:  2,845 Compared to last week steer and heifer calves sold steady to 3.00 higher with very good demand on an active market with mostly average through good quality calves.  Yearling steers compared with last week sold 3.00 to 5.00 higher in a limited comparison with very active demand on a very attractive offering.  Yearling heifers a limited comparison with last week’s light test; however very good demand for weaned and open replacement quality heifers. Slaughter cows sold 2.00 to 3.00 higher with good demand.  Slaughter bulls sold 3.00 higher with good demand.

Total supply included 11% slaughter cows, 01% slaughter bulls, less than 01% replacements and 88% feeders.  Feeder supply 50% steers, 17% bulls, 33% heifers with 38% of feeders weighing over 600 lbs.

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Tagged Post Topics Include: Economics, Market updates