Market Closes - March 8, 2013Posted on Mar 9, 2013
Soybean futures were pressured by no change in the US ending stocks forecast and by smaller-than-expected cuts in South American soy production estimates. One factor to monitor moving forward is the pace of Brazilian soybean exports; if the pace of ocean shipments picks up, China may not need US soybeans like they have). There is over a 50-day supply of vessels in Brazilian ports waiting to load.
Wheat futures managed steady closes despite a negative WASDE report and an immediate sell-off to the day’s lows. The corn rally may have helped.
Find the WASDE Report at: http://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/
Cattle futures closed much lower today despite the good jobs report and a record-setting stock market rally. The $128/cwt live market this week was disappointing given the surge in boxed beef values seen recently. We need some warm weather to fire up the grills and push beef values higher.
The Dow is at a record high and the S&P500 Index is less than one percent from the record 1565.15 set in October 2007. Today’s surge can be credited in part to the much better than expected U.S. jobs report; employment rose 236,000 in February compared to expectations of 165,000. The unemployment rate fell to 7.7 pct. This strong economic report also caused the U.S. dollar to strengthen (+.8%) and Treasury yields to spike (however, yields backed off by the end of the day).
Corn May +12 703.5; Jly +8 680.5; Dec +5 547 Bean May -2.5 1471; Jly -6.5 1447; Nov -9.5 1268.5 Meal May -1 435; Oct -2 359 Oil -27 5034 Wheat May +1.5 697; Jly unch 699; Dec -2 718 KC unch 734; MGE -3.5 792
LC Apr -75 12755; Jun -107 12337; Oct -90 12847 FC Mar -150 13897; Apr -127 14135; Aug -130 15055 LH Apr +22 8202; Jun -32 9170; Oct +57 8325 Milk Mar -3 1703; Apr -3 1720
Oats +3.5 388 Rice -3 1536
US$ +.8% Dow +68 14397 SP +7 1551 NAS +12 3244 Tran +62 6143 VIX -.47 12.59
WTI +39 9195 Brent -30 11085 Gas +8 320 NG +5 363 HO -.5 297.5 Eth +7.6 251
Gold +2 1577 Slvr +14 2895
2-yr unch 0.25% (high 0.27) 5-yr +.03 0.89% (high 0.92) 10yr +.05 2.04% (high 2.08) 30yr +.04 3.24% (high 3.28)
U.S. net beef exports narrow with tight domestic supplies The United States exported 2.45 billion pounds of beef in 2012 (in carcass weight equivalents), 12 percent below the record 2.78 billion pounds exported in 2011. The decline interrupted the steady recovery of U.S. beef exports after the discovery of a U.S. case of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in 2003 led to a sharp drop in U.S. shipments. While global export demand for U.S. beef remained robust, the decline in 2012 occurred primarily because tightening domestic cattle inventories reduced exportable supplies. U.S. beef imports have trended downward since 2003, when Canada reported the discovery of BSE. Canadian beef imports resumed quickly thereafter on a restricted basis, but imports from Australia and New Zealand were limited in subsequent years by tight supplies and domestic herd rebuilding. In 2012, U.S. beef imports were 8 percent higher, driven by tightening U.S. supplies and strong demand. Increased U.S. imports were mostly from Oceania, as herd rebuilding in the region allowed more beef to be exported to the United States.
Kentucky Weekly Livestock Summary for 1 March through 7 March, 2013 Receipts This Week Last Week Last Year 14,633 16,303 21,361 Supply: Slaughter Cows 10 percent; Slaughter Bulls 3 percent; Feeder cattle 85 percent. In the feeder supply, Steers made up approximately 45 percent and Heifers approximately 41 percent. Steers and Heifers over 600 lbs totaled approximately 68 percent. Replacement cattle 2 percent. Compared to last week: Steers and Heifers calves were mostly 2.00 to 4.00 higher. Gains were stronger earlier in the week with prices trending downward late. Feeder Steers and Heifers were 2.00 to 5.00 higher. Demand was mostly moderate to good with the higher demand for the heavier cattle. Slaughter Cows and Bulls were 2.00 to 3.00 higher continuing the trend from last week, demand was good.
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