Wheat and soy complex futures sold off sharply today following yesterday’s negative technical action.  Both soybeans and wheat futures peaked yesterday at/near important price levels seen on the charts.  May Soybeans topped at highs made a couple weeks ago which marked the top of the 2014 rally.  May CBOT Wheat topped near the highs set last fall.  This apparent “double top” chart action encouraged profit-taking on fund liquidation.  Adding to the pressure were ideas that China is trying to cancel soybean cargoes and that the HRW wheat area might see improved rainfall in early April.  Last night, the NOAA published its drought outlook map that shows the drought area shrinking the next 2-3 months. Corn futures were able to shake off the bearish impact of lower bean/wheat futures due to a strong corn export sale to Egypt and strong price gains in ethanol futures (falling inventories).

Live Cattle futures closed lower after trying to trade higher overnight following the sharp losses posted Thursday.  Although cash cattle traded higher Thursday, boxed beef dropped $1.50-1.80 by day’s end.  Today, the losses in beef values continued with Choice down 1.41 at 240.16 and Select down 1.11 at 233.66/cwt. After the closing bell, USDA released its March Cattle on Feed Report (see below).  The report is considered somewhat negative due to larger than expected placements in February resulting in more cattle on feed as of March 1.

The Lean Hog futures market was a wild one today with very wide trading ranges and a MIXED close with strength in the nearby April and the October/December contracts and losses in the May-August contracts. Strong cash hog and pork prices keep driving the April to new highs. Slaughter supplies have tightened up. As the March Hogs and Pigs report date approaches, we might see some profit-taking kick in.

The SP500 Index set a new record high today before closing lower.  Treasury yields softened a little today after jumping higher earlier this week.  The Russia/Ukraine/EU/US situation is calmer at week’s end but could blow up any time.

LC Apr -42 14400; Jun -7 13612; Oct -2 13752 FC Mar +140 17502; Apr +62 17527; Aug 17790; LH Apr +87 12567; Jun -47 13032; Oct +127 10427 Milk Mar -4 2329; Apr +48 2353; Oct +13 1950

US$ -.1%

Dow -28 16303 SP -5 1866 NAS -42 4277 Tran -27 7515 VIX +.48  15.00  +3.3%

WTI +65 9955 Brent +66 10711 Gas +2 291 NG -5 431 HO unch 292 Eth +5 285

2-yr unch 0.43% 5-yr unch 1.71% 10yr -.03 2.74% 30yr -.05 3.61%

United States Cattle on Feed Down 1 Percent  Cattle and calves on feed for slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 10.8 million head on March 1, 2014. The inventory was 1 percent below March 1, 2013.

Placements in feedlots during February totaled 1.65 million, 15 percent above 2013. Net placements were 1.58 million head. During February, placements of cattle and calves weighing less than 600 pounds were 390,000, 600-699 pounds were 330,000, 700-799 pounds were 415,000, and 800 pounds and greater were 515,000.

Marketings of fed cattle during February totaled 1.55 million, 3 percent below 2013. Marketings for February are the lowest for the month since the data series began in 1996.

Other disappearance totaled 71,000 during February, 18 percent above 2013.

Kentucky Weekly Livestock Summary for March 14-20, 2014 Receipts This Week   Last Wee    Last Year 23,866     28,030        19,290

Compared to last week:  Steer and Heifer calves mostly 3.00 to 5.00 higher, with instances up to 10.00 higher in late week sales.  Yearling Steers and Heifers steady to 2.00 higher.  Demand good to very good for calves; good for feeders.  While some areas saw up to 3 inches of snow Sunday night, Spring like weather is becoming more common.  Calves continue to be the popular item as backgrounders and stockers continue their procurement.  Profits made in the last couple of months on backgrounded cattle has many farmers smiling after they see the check; this is certainly providing extra push on calves.  Slaughter Cows 2.00 to 3.00 higher with the greatest advance on Lean Cows.  Slaughter Bulls 3.00 to 5.00 higher.  Salvage value for cull cows and bulls continues to make history.  Short numbers, competition for turn-out cows, Packers in need for numbers; all this in tandem with the high demand for cheap protein has the Slaughter Cow and Bull market thriving.  Lean meat for blending is the obvious push this week with the advance on Lean cows and Bulls.

Supply:  Slaughter Cows 10 percent; Slaughter Bulls 1 percent; Feeder cattle 89 percent.  In the feeder supply, Steers made up approximately 40 percent and Heifers approximately 42 percent.  Steers and Heifers over 600 lbs totaled approximately 49 percent.  Replacement cattle 1 percent.

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