Market Closes - March 18, 2013

Posted on Mar 18, 2013
CBOT futures closed mixed with soybeans and wheat posting losses while corn rallied to close well off the day’s lows. MAY CORN is back up challenging moving average chart resistance around $7.21. Old-crop soybean futures fell sharply on disappointing export inspections announced this morning. The shipping problems out of Brazil are causing Chinese importers problems with getting more credit. Chinese soybean purchase cancellations were rumored in the market. Wheat futures closed lower even though its export inspections were strong.

The US dollar was strong today as investors moved money to the US due to the worry generated by the Cyprus bank bailout deal. The “risk-off” trade weighed on commodities and Treasury yields. The Cyprus deal is still being debated.

Cattle futures managed small gains after trading lower in the morning. Traders may be reluctant to push futures lower when the on-feed supply is tightening and the first day of spring is near (grilling season). In boxed beef, Choice UP .08 at 195.84; Select DN 0.22 at 193.71. Cash prices at Blue Grass were down sharply from last week’s trade. (see below)

Lean hog futures closed slightly lower even as the Pork Cutout value rose and cash hog prices traded mixed. Cash hogs are at a discount to the April futures contract. The strong US dollar will suppress pork exports.

Corn May +3 720; Jly +3 703; Dec unch 562 (557-63) Bean May -16.5 1409.5; Jly -16 1394; Nov -2.5 1258.5 (1247-1261) Meal May -5.5 413; Oct -.5 355   Oil -23 4968 Wheat May -10 713; Jly -8 713 (707-720); Dec -6 733 KC -7 744; MGE -7 789

LC Apr +27 12605; Jun +7 12137; Oct +22 12705 FC Mar +2 13670; Apr +30 13940; Aug +20 14822 LH Apr -27 7940; Jun -37 8895; Oct -57 8030 Milk Mar unch 1695; Apr +23 1738

Oats -6 395 Rice -14 1454

 US$ +.6% Dow -62 14452 SP -9 1552 NAS -11 3238 Tran -21 6252     VIX +2.06 13.36 (+18.2%)

WTI +.5% Brent -.3% Gas -1.4% NG +.3% HO -.6% Eth +.1%

Gold +.7% Slvr unch

2-yr -.01 0.24% 5-yr -.03 0.80% 10yr -.03 1.95% 30yr -.03 3.18%

  A weather-adjusted yield model was developed for corn to provide this information. Weather effects on corn yields were examined over the past 25 years. Measured effects of weather were then netted out to derive a weather-adjusted U.S. corn yield projection for 2013. The resulting mean expected yield for corn is 163.6 bushels per acre. Higher or lower corn yields could result for different realized weather during the upcoming growing season.   See charts at  Weather Effects on Expected Corn and Soybean Yields , February 2013.  USDA – Economic Research Service.

Blue Grass Stockyards Cattle Auction Report for 03/18/2013 Receipts:      872   Last Monday:  1228   Year Ago:     1250

   Compared to last week, steer calves over 600 lbs 5.00 lower, Under 600 lbs 10.00 lower with light demand on an average quality offering.  Yearling steers sold 3.00 lower in a limited comparison with light demand.  Heifer calves under 700 lbs sold 5.00 to 10.00 lower with light demand, over 700 lbs sold steady to 3.00 lower in a limited comparison with moderate demand.  Slaughter cows sold 2.00 lower with moderate demand.  Slaughter bulls sold steady with good demand.    Heavy rain and flooding combined with lower cattle futures reduced demand for calves today; especially unweaned calves.      Total supply included 10% slaughter cows, less than 01% slaughter bulls, 0% replacements and 90% feeders.  Feeder supply 44% steers, 20% bulls, 36% heifers with 45% of feeders weighing over 600 lbs. 

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