May Soybean futures “gapped lower” on last night’s opening and nearly traded a dollar lower today than last Friday’s highest price. Nearly every factor you can cite is negative for soybean futures – mostly connected to China.  It appears that China’s economic growth is slipping and that doesn’t bode well for its demand for commodities.  Poor crush margins in China and a backlog of soybeans waiting to be unloaded there has apparently increased the amount of shipments from Brazil/U.S. that have been cancelled or delayed. This has finally hit the U.S. export basis for soybeans and soybean meal. Given that the large spec funds are huge longs, the sell-off has been severe; technical chart support may come in around 13.53 and 13.20.

On the flip side of the coin is the WHEAT market. Funds were reportedly large buyers as traders worry about HRW wheat country being too dry as we approach a break in dormancy.  Also, the Russia/Ukraine situation could threaten wheat supplies from the Black Sea region.  Corn futures found support from the sharply higher wheat values.

Cattle futures basically held their own today as cash feedlot trade is yet to be established and boxed beef was near steady. Choice carcasses up 0.04 at 241.51 and Select carcasses down 0.95 at 236.76/cwt.

Lean Hog futures saw some profit-taking in early trade but finished the day on a strong note after confirmation that pork values were up sharply again today.  FOB Plant Pork up 3.07 to 120.60/cwt.  This compares to 109.05 a week ago, and 100.60 two weeks ago.  Cash hog and pork values continue to chase after the futures rally.

Corn May +5 488 (476-89); Jly +5 492;      Dec +5 486 Bean May -26 1387 (1365-1407); Jly -23 1368; Nov -13 1176 (1168-94) Meal May -8 436; Oct -4 363 Oil -33 4342 Wheat May +25 684; Jly +24 688 KC +19 748;  MGE +24 731 Oats Mar +80 558; May +20 limit 444 Rice -12 1525

LC Apr +65 14387; Jun +57 13667; Oct +40 13790 FC mar +5 17397; Apr +30 17587; Aug +37 17817 LH Apr -17 11692 (after hours trading); Jun +37 12532; Oct -20 9932 Milk  Mar +29 2319; Apr +23 2162

US$ -.25%

Dow -11 16340 SP +1 1868 NAS +16 4323 Tran +26 7586 VIX -.33 14.47

WTI -196 9807 Brent -27 10828 Gas -1 295 NG -12 449 HO -3 293 Eth +9 237

2-yr -.02 0.36% 5-yr -.03 1.59% 10yr -.05 2.72% 30yr -.04 3.67%

The CME Group will change, effective May 1, the daily price limits for CBOT grain and oilseed futures and options contracts.  Twice a year, the minimum price limit will be adjusted based on a 45-day average price.   Read more at: http://www.cmegroup.com/tools-information/lookups/advisories/ser/SER-7038-PriceLimit-FS-CG.pdf

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