Corn May -2 362; Dec -2 386 (386-91)

Bean May -6 890; Nov -5 925 (924-33)

  Meal -2 301

  Oil -1 2964

Wheat May -11 428; Jly -10 437 (435-49)

  KC -10 420; MGE -3 546

Oats -1 262

Rice -10 1071

 

LC Apr -67 12900; Jun -70 12025; Aug -52 11665

FC Mar -162 14230; May -112 14740; Aug -20 15250

LH Apr +230 6285; Jun +177 7995; Aug +180 8247

Milk Apr +2 1482; May +5 1508

 

CBOT futures closed lower and near the day’s lows, with corn and wheat futures setting new contract lows. With last Friday’s WASDE report confirming burdensome world supplies, and no China trade deal expected this month, the spec funds are comfortable adding to already sizable (near record in some cases) short positions. The current (down) trend is their friend. These short positions may one day provide the fuel for a rally, but from what price level? The weekly corn chart shows risk to $3.30 in the May contract. Chicago Wheat has risk to $4.00 and then $3.86.

Cattle futures closed lower as traders booked profits after Friday’s strong close. Traders sold right after the opening bell, maybe in sympathy with the sell-off in grain/soy futures. Today’s weakness didn’t follow the favorable movement in boxed beef values. Choice beef gained 1.23 to 227.36 and Select ended up .85 at 219.63.  CH/Sel spread = 7.73.  Last week’s fed steer market averaged $128.10/cwt, near steady with the previous week. The cash market should be supported again this week with dressed weights down and strong packer margins.

Lean Hog futures soared today, adding to Friday’s strong gains. Hog futures were supported by rising hog and pork cutouts. Traders are encouraged by news that China’s hog prices hit 14-month highs amid their African Swine Fever outbreak. FOB Plant Pork rose 1.38 to 66.42 with roughly 2-percent gains in all primals but the picnic. LH futures are approaching over-bought levels, so the rally may pause.

BEEF EXPORTS RECORD-LARGE IN 2018

   Last year U.S. beef exports shattered the previous value record and achieved a new high for volume, according to year-end 2018 statistics released by USDA and compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF). Pork export volume came up just short of the record set in 2017 while value slipped 1 percent year-over-year. U.S. lamb exports rebounded from a down year in 2017, largely due to stronger variety meat demand in Mexico.

  Read USMEF Report HERE.

 

US$ -.2%

Dow +201 25651

SP +40 2783

NAS +150 7558

Tran +196 10313

  VIX -1.72  14.33

 

WTI +67 5710

Brent +86 6660

Gas +2 183

NG -9 278

HO unch 199

Eth -1 129

Gold -8 1291

Slvr -7 1527

 

2-yr +.014 2.477%

5-yr +.017 2.442%

10yr +.016 2.641%

30yr +.020 3.029%

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