Market Closes - June 30, 2016

Posted on Jun 30, 2016

CBOT futures closed mixed in response to the midday reports from USDA. USDA surprised traders with about 1.2 million more corn acres than expected. On the other hand, soybean acres were just below the average trade guess, although still the largest on record.

Compared to the March Planting Intentions Report, corn acreage rose about 550 million acres. Increases of 100,000 acres or more were posted in WI, SD, MN, IA and MO. Corn acreage is the 3rd highest on record.

USDA’s soybean acreage estimate is 1.45 million acres above the March Intentions.  States with 100,000+ acre increases include KY, TN, AR, OK, KS, IN, OH and MN.

Adding to the bearish corn situation was the bigger-than-expected June 1 stocks number. A larger soybean stocks number only limited the gain in soybean futures.

The market will now focus on weather.  The CPC shows above-normal temperatures through July and generally above-normal rainfall through mid-July in the Corn Belt.
 

Compared to 2015, Kentucky farmers planted 100,000 more corn acres and 40,000 less soybean acres. USDA forecasts harvested acreage to be down 1,000 acres in burley and down 10,000 acres for alfalfa.

Tonight, CME Group raised spec and hedge margins by 11.5%. Hedgers now have to margin $2900 per 5000-bushel contract.
 

Cattle futures closed higher across the board, extending the rally into its fourth day. The June LC contract is now $6.00/cwt above the June lows. Support came from signs that cash cattle will trade higher this week, possibly above $120.00. Choice down 0.13 at 208.44; Select down 0.87 at 195.01. This is weaker than midday quotes of 209.32 and 196.41. June LC expired today at $120.00, so August is now the lead LC contract and is at a significant discount. Offsetting this positive news is the fact that Choice Beef has fallen $15.00/cwt in the past two weeks.

Lean Hog futures finished lower in July and August, and higher in deferred contracts. Price changes were minimal with trading ranges mostly under $1.00/cwt. LH futures were pressured by weakness in the pork market.  FOB Plant Pork fell .51 to 88.18 with ribs down 9%. It was down 1.11 at midday. The July LH contract now sits near the middle of the April-June trading range.


Corn Jly -14 359; Dec -12 371 (low 365)

Bean Jly +30 1175; Nov +41 1153 (hi 1161)

  Meal +8 405

  Oil +56 3138

Wheat Jly +2 431; Dec unch 465

  KC +4 404;  MGE +2 495

Oats +1 205

Rice -14 1050

 

LC Aug +70 11482; Oct +70 11465; Feb +50 11430

FC Aug +82 14387; Oct +95 14140; Jan +132 13480

LH Jly -25 8285; Oct +5 7170; Dec +17 6420

Milk Jly -6

 

US$ +.3%

Dow +235 17930

SP +28 2099

NAS +63 4843

Tran +72 7485

  VIX -1.01 15.63

 

WTI -151 4837

Brent -93 4968

Gas -4 150

NG +7 293

HO -5 149

Eth +2 161

Gold -2 1325

Slvr +46 1884

 

2-yr -.039 0.586%

5-yr -.024 1.000%

10yr -.005 1.471%

30yr +.004 2.286%