Market Closes - July 9, 2014

Posted on Jul 9, 2014
CBOT futures continue to work lower under the weight of fund selling and buyers not seeing any reason to step in with crops seeming to have record yield potential. Friday’s updated supply-demand tables (WASDE) from USDA will show increases in ending stocks forecasts but are not likely to use corn/bean yields as high as private traders are working with in their forecasts. The NWS-CPC outlooks show most of the Corn Belt will have cooler than normal temperatures and a mix of moisture conditions through the next two weeks.

The soybean stocks situation is projected to grow from 125-130 million bushels for this year (2013-14) to over 400 million bushels on August 31, 2015. The world soybean situation will grow from 67 mmt to nearly 85 mmt next year. December Corn has moved to new contract lows for 7 straight days. Soybean futures are within striking distance of contract lows after closing lower for 8 straight days (since June 27, a day before the USDA Stocks Report). Wheat futures continue to trend lower with the Chicago contract setting new contract lows. KC and MGEX remain above the contract lows set January 31.

Cattle futures traded higher this morning until the pits opened when priced began a 3-hour sell-off that makes the charts look toppy with bearish downside reversals. Livestock traders may have been taking profits as they saw grains and energy continue to drop in price. The seasonal factor also favors a price correction but this year’s cattle market is unique.

Lean Hog futures closed mixed with contracts beyond the JULY trading with lots of volatility and the deferred futures closing higher – a trend started with the June 27th Hogs & Pigs Report. LH futures rallied with cattle into the opening of pit trade around 9 am CT. Both commodities saw some price recovery after 1230 pm CT.

Corn Sep -7 391; Dec -6 398 (395-404) Bean Aug -2 1246; Sep -9 1132; Nov -12 1104 Meal Aug +4 406; Oct -2 358 Oil -74 3714 Wheat Sep -5 551; Dec -5 575 (571-82) KC Sep -11 653; MGE -10 647 Oats Sep -12 338 (Jly -32 358) Rice -24 1345

LC Aug -272 15080; Oct -242 15355; Feb -142 15340 FC Aug -230 21360 (21290-21800); Oct -267 21487; Mar -300 limit 20825 LH Jly +110 13330 (last day is July 15); Aug -25 12960; Dec +120 10545 Milk Jly +6 2138; Aug -15 2034

US$ -.2%

Dow +79 16986 SP +9 1973 NAS +28 4419 Tran +44 8245 VIX -.34 11.64

WTI -147 10193 Brent -79 10815 Gas -4 294 NG -4 417 HO unch 287 Eth +1 215

Gold +12 1328 Slvr +16 2117

2-yr -.024 0.480% 5-yr -.024 1.673% 10yr -.010 2.556% 30yr -.003 3.378%

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Tagged Post Topics Include: Economics, Market updates