Market Closes - July 8, 2019

Posted on Jul 8, 2019

Corn Sep +1 439; Dec +1 444 (438-48)

Bean Aug +3 879; Nov +3 898 (892-902)

  Meal unch 306

  Oil +43 2799

Wheat Sep -4 511; Dec -3 523; Jly -1 540

   KC -4 441; MGE -1 532

Oats unch 278

Rice +23 1173

 

LC Aug -85 10615; Dec -45 11187; Feb +5 11627

FC Aug +7 13890; Oct -2 13887; Jan -10 13785

LH Jly -205 7007; Oct -207 6800; Dec -255 6745

Milk Jly -2 1736; Aug -3 1786

 

Corn and soybean futures closed little changed after trading both sides of unchanged. No major news today to move the market. Traders are preparing for Thursday’s monthly USDA crop reports. The validity of the estimates could be questioned due to the uncertainty of the recent acreage estimates. USDA will be resurveying most Midwest states later this month to improve planted acreage estimates. The spec funds have a sizable long in corn futures and a modest short in soybeans.

USDA’s crop condition reports show little change since a week ago in corn and soybeans. But both crops have Good/Excellent ratings 18 points below a year ago. Similarly, the V.Poor/Poor ratings are 5 points bigger than a year ago.

Today’s 6-10 and 8-14 day outlook maps show much above normal temperatures for the Corn Belt and above normal temps in areas east of the Rockies. This will help crop development. The 6-10 day favors drier weather, with the 8-14 day turning a bit wetter.  See maps HERE.  

Week ending July 7

U.S. Corn Conditions

.      Good/Excellent  Poor/V.Poor

This Week      57%         12%

Last Week      56%         12%

Last year      75%          7%

** 8% silking vs 22% average

U.S. Soybean Conditions

.      Good/Excellent  Poor/V.Poor

This Week      53%         12%

Last Week      54%         11%

Last year      71%          7%

  ** 10% blooming vs 32% average

Winter Wheat Harvested

47% complete vs 61% average

U.S. Pasture and Range

68% good/excellent vs 51% year ago.

8% poor/v.poor vs 21% year ago.

 

 

LC Aug -85 10615; Dec -45 11187; Feb +5 11627

FC Aug +7 13890; Oct -2 13887; Jan -10 13785

LH Jly -205 7007; Oct -207 6800; Dec -255 6745

 

Cattle futures closed mostly lower with Live Cattle not seeing follow-through from Friday’s move higher. Last week, fed steer prices firmed up, averaging $111.17/cwt, or a $5.00 premium to August LC futures. Boxed beef was not supportive. Choice Beef slipped .21 to 217.46 and Select lost .39 to 194.41. Lighter weights (down 15 pounds y/y) and current marketings provide some optimism.

Lean Hog futures fell sharply today with July LH moving to a new 12-month low; the close is barely above the contract low set last July. Over the 12 months, July LH rallied $32.00/cwt and has since given it all back after China has failed to make significant US pork purchases despite its ASF losses. FOB Plant Pork dropped 1.29 to 71.88 with ribs losing 7% in value, picnics down 9% and loins down over 3%. The average hog carcass is 6 pounds heavier than a year ago. Weekly pork production was 7.25% higher than a year ago.  

US$ +.2% 97.38

Dow -116 26806

SP -14 2976

NAS -63 8098

Tran -69 10416

  VIX +.68 13.96

 

WTI +15 5766

Brent -25 6398

Gas -3 190

NG -1 240

HO -1 190

Eth -1 152

Gold unch 1400

Slvr +5 1505

 

2-yr +.019 1.892%

5-yr +.015 1.857%

10yr +.005 2.049%

30yr -.016 2.532%

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