Market Closes - July 6, 2021

Posted on Jul 6, 2021

Corn Sep -40 limit 552; Dec -40 540 (540-52); Dec22 -21 482

Bean Aug -89 1344; Nov -94 1305 (1300-73); Nov22 -71 1200

  Meal Aug -25 357; Dec -26 362 (361-81)

  Oil Aug -307 6040; Dec -350 limit 5878

Wheat Sep -27 626 (615-38); Dec -28 633; Jly22 -26 646

  KC Sep -35 584; MGE -45 793

Oats -15 371

Rice -32 1282

 

LC Aug +40 12240; Oct +7 12815; Dec -22 13255

FC Aug +357 16062; Oct +317 16465; Jan +302 16612

LH Jly +127 10992; Oct -25 8445; Dec -90 7792

Milk Jly -6 1673; Aug -11 1660

 

Thanks to rains over the 3-day weekend and wetter Corn Belt forecasts, CBOT futures closed sharply lower with corn and soybean oil futures settling down the daily limits. Corn only traded for a little over 15 minutes before locking down the limit for the rest of the day. July Corn (with no limit) traded as much as 52 cents lower around 11:30 am CT. Needless to say, the price charts with the large down gaps and low closes paint a negative technical picture. The market will trade updated weather forecasts until Monday when USDA updates its supply-demand tables using last week’s smaller-than-expected acreage estimates. The question is will/have the speculative funds given up on their bullish bet. However, big yields are needed just to meet forecasted demand in 21/22.  U.S. corn and soybean crop ratings are pretty much in line with trade expectations.

U.S Crop Progress
Corn rated good/excellent is 64% vs 64% week ago and 71% year ago. Acreage rated v.poor/poor is 9% vs 8% week ago and 6% year ago.  Silking is reported on 10% of acres vs 14% for 5-yr avg.
 

Soybeans blooming are 29% vs 24% 5-year avg.
Acreage rated good/excellent is 59% vs 60% week ago and 71% year ago.
Acreage rated v.poor/poor is 11% vs 9% week ago and 5% year ago.

Winter Wheat:
Harvested acreage is 45% vs 33% week ago and 53% for 5-yr avg.

Spring Wheat:
  16% good/excellent vs 20% week ago and 70% year ago.
  50% poor/v.poor vs 39% week ago and 6% year ago.

Pasture and Range Condition:
  31% good/excellent vs 41% year ago
  42% poor/v.poor vs 28% year ago
 

Live cattle closed narrowly mixed while feeder cattle soared higher in response to the limit-down corn move. Feeder cattle appeared to support the LC market as last week’s cash trade was weaker. Choice beef gained 1.24 to 286.68 and Select lost 1.10 to 263.31. Negotiated cash trade was inactive. Last week’s cash prices ranged from $120-122 in the So Plains to $124-126 in northern markets; carcass prices averaged $198/cwt.

Lean hog futures closed mixed with only the July and August LH contracts making positive closes. LH was supported by last week’s smaller slaughter and this morning’s pork cutout strength. FOB Plant Pork end down 1.58 to 113.61 with loin value being the sole loser, but down a sharp 8.97 to 101.15.

US$ +.3% 92.54

Dow -209 34577

SP -9 4344

NAS +24 14664  - RECORD HIGH

Tran -151 14885

  VIX +1.37 16.44

WTI crude oil futures reached levels not seen since 2014, but then reversed sharply lower. Traders seem divided over whether the lack of a new OPEC+ production agreement over the weekend is bullish or bearish.

WTI -141 7295  (high - 7607)

Brent -226 7490 (high – 7784)

Gas -6 224 (high – 233)

NG -3 367 (high - 382)

HO -5 213 (high -221)

Eth unch 238

Gold +14 1797

Slvr -25 2625

2-yr -.018 0.220%

5-yr -.062 0.800%

10yr -.079 1.353%

30yr -.069 1.981%

“Across Kentucky” podcast  - Click Here

KENTUCKY CASH GRAIN PRICES Click Here

KENTUCKY LIVESTOCK AUCTIONS --  Click Here