Market Closes - July 6, 2016

Posted on Jul 6, 2016

CBOT futures closed lower in the major commodities, pressured by favorable weather and forecasts that encouraged heavy long liquidation. While corn closed sharply lower, soybeans made a huge recovery from sharp losses starting around noon that was fueled by a rally in soybean meal futures.  Corn futures hit new contract lows today.  Chicago and KC wheat made new contract lows yesterday.

Monday’s crop ratings showed corn at unchanged and soybeans down 2 points – with both crops in better than usual condition.  The 6-10 day and 8-14 day forecasts predict the eastern U.S. will be much warmer than normal, but also wetter than normal.

FROM YESTERDAY’S NASS CROP PROGRESS/CONDITION REPORT:

Week ending July 3
U.S. Corn Conditions
.        Good/Excellent  Poor/V.Poor
This Week      75%           5%
Last Week      75%           5%
Last year      69%           8%

U.S. Soybean Conditions
.        Good/Excellent  Poor/V.Poor
This Week      70%           7%
Last Week      72%           5%
Last year      63%           9%

 

Live Cattle closed lower while Feeder Cattle were mixed, thanks to the lower corn futures market. Yesterday’s small gains were erased with today’s losses. Traders remain cautious regarding beef demand and the cattle market. The cash steer market should be around $120/cwt this week, so that’s a nice premium to the August LC futures and may limit downside risk in the short run. Choice beef closed up .25 to 209.08 and Select gained 2.14 to 196.93.

Lean Hog futures closed lower with huge losses in the August and October contracts. These contracts had been outperforming the July LH, but today the sellers hit them hard.  The nearby July LH contract is at a slight discount to the cash market which is a positive sign given today’s stronger pork market. FOB Plant Pork gained .81 to 90.07 with ham value up 3%.

Corn Sep -9 341; Dec -10 348 (346-59)

Bean Aug -8 1101; Nov -4 1073 (1040-81)

  Meal Aug -1 383

  Oil -593036

Wheat Sep -5 428; Dec -5 448

  KC -2 415; MGE -6 502

Oats +2 192

Rice +28 1059

 

LC Aug -85 11280; Oct -90 11310; Feb -60 11357

FC Aug +50 14457; Oct +7 14247; Jan -17 13577

LH Jly -47 8157; Aug -262 8062; Oct -225 6990

Milk Jly +22 1519; Aug +25 1595

 

US$ -.2%

Dow +78 17919

SP +11 2100

NAS +36 4859

Tran -4 7458

  VIX -.60 14.98  -3.8%

 

WTI +133 4793

Brent +132 4928

Gas +3 146

NG +3 280

HO +5 149

Eth -2 157

Gold +7 1366

Slvr +24 2015

   U.S. Treasury yields hit record lows today as the world’s investors seek their safety and higher yields (some European and Japanese bonds have zero or negative yields).

2-yr +.019 0.581%

5-yr +.013 0.951%

10yr +.006 1.373%

30yr +.002 2.140%