Market Closes - July 31, 2019

Posted on Jul 31, 2019

Corn Sep -11 400; Dec -11 410 (409-23)

Bean Aug -15 864; Nov -15 881 (880-900)

  Meal -2 298

  Oil -56 2775

Wheat Sep -10 487; Jly -6 514(510-22)

  KC -11 423; MGE -9 519

Oats -1 256

Rice -15 1194

 

LC Aug -120 10690; Dec -122 11222; Feb -107 11635

FC Aug -157 14152; Oct -132 14255; Jan -117 14030

LH Aug -297 7932; Oct -300 limit 7100; Dec -300 7027

Milk Aug -17 1730; Sep -17 1763

 

CBOT futures closed sharply lower as technical support levels were violated – especially in corn and wheat. The negative aspect of the US/China trade talks and relatively decent weather forecasts weighed on the market. The strengthening US Dollar is also a negative, as is the ethanol market which now has record inventories despite lower production. Technically, CBOT contracts closed at monthly lows, which is not a good sign. Futures may languish until the August Crop report updates acreage and yield forecasts.

Cattle futures closed lower for a second day as traders liquidate long positions given a lack of friendly fundamentals. Choice beef lost .49 to 213.54 and Select fell 1.44 to 189.69. Limit-down losses in lean hog futures add spillover pressure.

Lean Hog futures fell sharply for the third consecutive day on continued long liquidation in light of the negative US/China trade talks. LH futures are falling even as the pork cutout and cash hog values have been improving the past few days. FOB Plant Pork gained .41 to 87.50 with support from 3% gains in values of the belly and the butt. The morning cutout quote was down .57.

Today’s FOMC rate cut of a 1/4 point not only hit the stock market, but it led to a sharp rally in the US Dollar. The US$ Index hit levels not seen since December 2017. Apparently, traders/investors expected a bigger rate cut and/or a more “dovish” policy. There’s concern that future rate cuts won’t be coming as easy as expected.

US$ +.5%  98.6

Dow -334 26864

SP -33 2980

NAS -98 8175

Tran -83 10702

  VIX +2.18 16.12

 

WTI +53 5858

Brent +45 6518

Gas +2 186

NG +10 223

HO +2 197

Eth -3 145

Gold -4 1426

Slvr -15 1640

 

2-yr +.018 1.866%

5-yr -.023 1.821%

10yr -.055 2.006%

30yr -.068 2.518%

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