Market Closes - July 27, 2020

Posted on Jul 27, 2020

Corn Sep -1 325 (323-27); Dec unch 334 (332-36)

Bean Aug +2 906 (901-09); Nov unch 900 (895-904)

  Meal +2 292 (289-95)

  Oil -20 2960

Wheat Sep -12 528 (526-39); Dec -10 535; Jly21 -6 545

  KC -10 439; MGE -7 508

Oats +1 287

Rice -16 1164

 

LC Aug -90 10042; Oct -127 10382; Dec -125 10807

FC Aug -270 13935; Oct -212 14067; Jan -35 14067

LH Aug +55 5455; Oct +60 5075; Dec -37 5155

Milk Aug +39 2214; Sep +30 2045

Corn and soybean futures ended steady while wheat futures dropped sharply. Corn and beans were pressured by favorable weather and weekly export inspections on the low side of expectations. Beans got a lift from the 10th straight day of export sales announcements. This steady sales pace does not mean big sales that might push futures much higher. August soybeans gained on new-crop contracts again today. Tonight’s crop ratings show 3-point improvements for both corn and soybeans in the good/excellent category. This is better than the trade expected – maybe 0-1 point improvements. Tonight’s 6-10 and 8-14 day NWS outlooks shows normal to below-normal temperatures, with mostly normal to below-normal rainfall.

Wheat futures opened lower Sunday evening and just kept working lower all the way to the close. Some increased production estimates for the Ukraine/Black Sea areas led the market to reverse a chunk of last week’s gains. The US Dollar has broken support and further weakness is supportive of commodity prices.

U.S Crop Progress
Corn is 82% silked vs 59% last week and 75% 5-yr avg.
Corn is 22% in dough vs 9% last week and 17% 5-yr avg.

Soybeans are 76% blooming vs 64% last week and 72% 5-yr avg.
Soybeans are 43% setting pods vs 25% last week and 36% 5-yr avg.

Winter Wheat Harvest
   81% harvested, compared to 82% 5-yr avg.

 

U.S Crop Conditions
Crop        Good/Exc   Poor/V.Poor
(  ) change from last week.
Corn         72%(up 3)   7%(down 1)
Soybean   72%(up 3)   6%(down 1)
Pasture     36%(up 1)  30%(down 4)


LC Aug -90 10042; Oct -127 10382; Dec -125 10807

FC Aug -270 13935; Oct -212 14067; Jan -35 14067

LH Aug +55 5455; Oct +60 5075; Dec -37 5155

 

Cattle futures closed lower with feeders posting big losses in the Aug/Sep/Oct FC contracts. Given Friday’s Cattle on Feed Report was considered neutral to slightly friendly, and boxed beef values were firm, it wasn’t surprising to see LC and FC open strongly higher this morning. However, futures quickly reversed direction and worked their way lower the rest of the day. This price action resulted in very negative chart patterns, which hopefully will not be followed through with selling tomorrow. Choice beef rose .78 to 202.55 and Select fell .50 to 190.13. Load count was very light at 94. Cash trade is not established. Last week’s 5-market average was $97.23/cwt live and $158.10 dressed. Weekly beef production of 537.3 million pounds was only down .2% from a week earlier.

Lean Hog futures closed mixed – higher in the Aug/Oct contracts and lower in the deferred ones. August and October LH closed in the upper range. Gains were limited despite strong pork demand and a morning pork cutout that was up 6.07/cwt. LH futures are at a premium to cash. FOB Plant Pork was up .77 to 71.30. Loin was the only primal which lost value – down 2.87 to 69.81. Ham and belly value rose around 3 percent; butt value gained over 4 percent. Last week’s pork production of 550 million pounds was 2.5% above the previous week. The national base carcass price of 53.95/cwt was up 6.3% for the week.

US$ -.7% 93.67

Dow +115 26585

SP +24 3239

NAS +173 10536

Tran +87 9817

  VIX -1.1 24.74

 

WTI +37 41.66

Brent +.19 4353

Gas -1 125

NG -8 178

HO unch 127

Eth -3 111

Gold +39 1937

Slvr +1.88 24.73

 

2-yr +.004 0.153%

5-yr +.013 0.287%

10yr +.026 0.615%

30yr +.020 1.259%

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