Market Closes - July 25, 2016

Posted on Jul 25, 2016

** See end of message for USDA sign-up deadline **

CBOT futures closed mixed as U.S. weather continues to ease concerns of production problems. The speculative funds have a large soybean position that they are trying to shrink. While corn is getting more acreage past the critical pollination period, the risk period for soybeans is in August – so the bulls still have time to be saved by hot, dry weather. However, the NWS isn’t forecasting that to happen. This afternoon’s crop condition report showed corn and soybean’s conditions are unchanged from last week.

November soybean futures hit a new low for this move and are at 3-month lows. 200-day moving average chart support is $9.53 tonight for November Soybeans and $9.60 for August Soybeans.  Nearby soybean oil futures have not been this low since January. The downtrend in crude oil and gasoline futures since early June is weighing on soybean oil futures which has lost 4 cents/pound over this period.

Wheat closed higher on short-covering as the spec funds continue to carry a very large short position. Winter Wheat harvest is 83% complete. Some European wheat production problems make the news but the world wheat supply will be huge.

Week ending July 24
U.S. Corn Conditions

.        Good/Excellent  Poor/V.Poor
This Week      76%           5%
Last Week      76%           5%
Last year      70%           9%

U.S. Soybean Conditions
.        Good/Excellent  Poor/V.Poor
This Week      71%           7%
Last Week      71%           7%
Last year      62%          11%

U.S. Pasture and Range
55% good/excellent vs 61% year ago.
15% poor/v.poor vs 12% year ago.

Many cattle futures (through December 2016) contracts closed LIMIT UP as traders were encouraged by Friday’s friendly Cattle on Feed Report and the discount August LC have to the last cash trade near $115/cwt. Sellers want $117 or more this week. Cattle futures gapped higher on the opening and August LC closed above the downtrend line established in June and July – both of which are positive technical signals. Choice Beef closed 1.50 lower at 198.59 and Select edged down .13 to 189.44. 

Lean Hog futures traded higher at the open, but quickly sold off sharply, only to recover during the last hour of trading to close slightly higher. The early support was tied to Friday’s positive turnaround in LH futures and the sharp gains in cattle futures at the opening. Pressure came from lower cash hog bids.  Stronger midday pork values may have limited losses.  FOB Plant Pork closed up .41 at 88.89.

Corn Sep unch 335; Dec unch 341 (337-45)

Bean Aug -23 984; Nov -22 966 (963-92)

  Meal Aug -8 339

   Oil -75 2946

Wheat Sep +4 429; Dec +6 456; Jly +8 503

  KC +4 423; MGE +2 497

Oats -3 204

Rice -4 1036


LC Aug +300 limit 11295; Dec +300 11220; Feb +297 11230

FC Aug +450 limit 14170; Oct +450 13930; Jan +442 13442

LH Aug +40 7567; Oct +45 6435; Dec +57 5905

Milk Jly +1 1528; Aug +25 1697

US$ -.1%

Dow -78 18493

SP -7 2168

NAS -3 5098

Tran -73  7893

  VIX +.85 12.87  +7.1%

WTI -114 4305

Brent -98 4471

Gas -3 133

NG -5 273

HO -3 132

Eth +1 147

Gold -8 1315

Slvr -8 1960

2-yr +.028 0.735%

5-yr +.021 1.141%

10yr +.007 1.575%

30yr unch  2.289%

USDA Reminds Kentucky Producers of August 1 Deadline to Enroll in Agriculture Risk Coverage and Price Loss Coverage Programs 

    (LEXINGTON, KENTUCKY), July 21, 2016 – U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Kentucky Farm Service Agency (FSA) Executive Director, John W. McCauley reminds farmers and ranchers that they have until Aug. 1 to enroll in Agriculture Risk Coverage (ARC) and/or Price Loss Coverage (PLC) programs for the 2016 crop year.

“Producers have already elected ARC or PLC, but they must enroll for the 2016 crop year by signing a contract before the Aug. 1 deadline to receive program benefits,” said McCauley. “Producers are encouraged to contact their local FSA office to schedule an appointment to enroll.”

Kentucky Farm Bureau Minute video  - Click Here