Market Closes - July 24, 2019
Posted on Jul 24, 2019Corn Sep -1 424; Dec -1 431 (428-37)
Bean Aug +5 891; Nov +4 908 (901-13)
Meal unch 306
Oil +29 2830
Wheat Sep +10 498; Jly +7 526 (520-27)
KC +8 439; MGE +2 522
Oats -1 265
Rice +6 1203
LC Aug -15 10890; Dec +5 11430; Feb unch 11810
FC Aug +62 14282; Oct +35 14302; Jan +32 14132
LH Aug +37 8655; Oct -95 8085; Feb -20 8272
Milk Aug +5 1771; Sep +4 1802
CBOT futures closed mixed with wheat posting the best gains. Corn and soybeans lack significant news or fundamental changes to drive prices. Traders don’t have reliable acreage numbers to use and the weather is generally neutral for the coming week. The news of a restart in US/China trade negotiations did not help ag futures. The next USDA Crop report comes Monday, August 12.
Technically, corn and beans are about two percent above chart support. December corn is 11 cents above support at 4.20 and the November soybean is 18 cents above support at the July low of 8.90. Wheat rallied nicely on technical buying as cuts in competitors’ production forecasts caused wheat to bounce back from the new lows set in the July sell-off.
USDA is expected to announce county payment details for the MFP 2.0 on Thursday. Secretary Perdue already has indicated a minimum of $15/acre payment for the first payment coming in August.
Cattle futures closed mostly higher with increases mostly 35 cents or less. Trading ranges were narrow as well. Traders are generally waiting for the cash market to provide direction, with hopes of an improving market. Live Cattle futures have rallied about $10/cwt the past month. Except for the August LC contract, futures are pausing below the highs posted July 11-12. The boxed beef market was a non-event today as Choice beef slipped .18 to 213.60 and Select lost .29 to 189.42. The CH/Sel spread = 24.18. Traders will study tomorrow morning’s beef export sales report.
Lean Hog futures closed narrowly mixed but August and October LH hit new highs for the current rally off June lows. Fundamentals are generally supportive as cash hog prices have risen sharply of late. Unfortunately, pork values have not kept pace and therefore packer margins have reportedly turned negative. Pork values need to catch up with hog prices. FOB Plant Pork gained .83 to 81.43 with bellies up 4%, ham up 3% and ribs down 2.5%. With the US and China to talk trade again next week, hope for export sales is supportive.
US$ steady
Dow -79 27270
SP +14 3020
NAS +70 8322
Tran +58 10775
VIX -.54 12.07
WTI -88 5589
Brent -66 6317
Gas -1 185
NG -7 223
HO -1 191
Eth -3 147
Gold +4 1426
Slvr +15 1662
2-yr -.009 2.820%
5-yr -.012 1.813%
10yr -.028 2.046%
30yr -.031 2.575%
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