Grain and livestock futures experienced more price volatility today than was seen earlier this week. This indicates more uncertainty as to what the “correct” price is for current supply-demand conditions.

Soybeans led the market today, adding to Wednesday’s gains. Soybean futures moved higher overnight and popped up with a friendly USDA export sales report (especially for 2014-15 crop). However, prices soon headed down and ended lower than when the report came out. 6-14 day NWS forecasts call for cooler-than-normal temps and below-normal rainfall in most of the Corn Belt. The forecast becomes more important the closer we get to August 1.

Corn and wheat futures followed soybeans higher in the morning but closed lower. Traders had concerns about talk that China will have restrictions on DDG imports and news that a crop tour is finding strong yield potential in U.S. spring wheat.

Live Cattle futures closed higher but well off the day’s highs which resulted from the strong rally seen late yesterday when traders learned of record-high fed cattle prices of $160-162. Buying volume was light at the higher price, so aggressive selling kicked in after 830 am CT. Futures recovered late morning as traders learned that boxed beef values were up strongly at midday. Boxed beef values finished the day very strong with Choice up 2.97 to 255.56 and Select up 4.13 to 252.84/cwt. One year ago, Choice was $186.89 and Select was 182.22; August LC was $123. Traders will prepare for tomorrow afternoon’s Cattle on Feed Report with July 1st inventory expected to be 98.1 pct of the year-earlier level.

Lean Hog futures closed sharply lower with another near-limit down day in some contracts. Technically, the charts have turned negative and strong support levels are several cents/lb below the market. FOB Plant Pork dropped 1.29 to 131.31/cwt on losses in bellies and ribs. Despite fewer hogs being marketed, the average weights have remained far above those seen the past two years. The extra pork/pig is keeping pork supply within about 4 percent of year-ago levels.

Corn Sep -1 361; Dec -1 369; Dec’15 unch 411 Bean Aug +6 1207; Sep +10 1111; Nov +8 1085; Nov’15 unch 1078 Meal Aug +4 395; Oct +3 353 Oil +4 3624 Wheat Sep -2 529; Dec -4 550; Jly -6 600 KC -3 620; MGE -1 620 Oats +4 337 Rice -3 1308

LC Aug +50 15655; Dec +5 15777; Apr +45 15545 FC Aug +7 21732; Oct -55 21762; Mar +67 20892 LH Aug -137 12320; Oct -255 10790; Feb -267 9430 Milk Aug -14 2166; Sep unch 2098

US$ +.1%

Dow -3 17084 SP +1 1988 NAS -2 4472 Tran -2 8467 VIX +.34 11.86

WTI -114 10198 Brent -84 10719 Gas -2 287 NG +8 384 HO unch 287 Eth +1 212 Gold -11 1294 Slvr -56 2043

2-yr +.016 0.492% 5-yr +.048 1.698% 10yr +.041 2.505% 30yr +.038 3.296%

 

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