Market Closes - July 22, 2013

Posted on Jul 22, 2013
CBOT futures closed mixed with strong demand for soybean meal driving old-crop soybean futures higher, dragging the new-crop up as well. The turn to cool temperatures through the next two weeks of corn pollination pressured CORN futures lower.  Watch the $4.90 support level in DECEMBER CORN for signs of Corn futures breaking down. Chart resistance is not far away as the recent highs create a downtrend line.

Tonight’s Crop Condition reports from USDA showed a 2-3 point decline in U.S. Corn’s condition rating, near traders’ expectations.

Wheat futures closed lower in sympathy with the lower Corn futures. Winter wheat harvest is 75 pct complete, compared to 76 pct for 2008-2012.  South Dakota is running far behind normal.  Spring wheat conditions are mostly Good, so crop prospects appear very good given the latest weather outlook.

Tonight’s 6-14 day forecast from NWS shows the Corn Belt to have cooler-than-normal temperatures but also below-normal rainfall. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/

LIVE CATTLE futures closed lower with the largest loss coming in the October contract due to the large number of heavy-weight feeders entering feedlots during June. Futures remain in a sideways range and cattle/beef cash prices aren’t showing any sign of strength. Feeder Cattle benefit from weaker corn prices.

Given the near-record large spec long in Lean Hog futures, it’s obvious these traders are very optimistic about hog and pork values.  This afternoon’s Cold Storage Report showed a large decline in frozen pork stocks during June, suggesting demand was strong.

The large jump in gold prices is attributed to heavy short-covering after price moved above $1300. The weaker US dollar also supported gold prices.

Corn Sep -3 541; Dec -3 498; May -2 518

Bean Aug +29 1520 (hi 1525); Sep +23 1349; Nov +14.5 1288.5 Meal Aug +20 502 (limit up); Dec +7 390 Oil -9 4541

Wheat Sep -5 660; Dec -4 671; Jly -3 687 (hi 693) KC -3 702; MGE -4 747

Oats +2 357

Rice -15 1540

LC Aug -10 12187; Oct -62 12560; Feb -17 12995 FC Aug +67 15292; Oct +67 15787; Jan +55 15905 LH Aug +65 9712; Oct +30 8527; Dec +7 8230 Milk Jly -3 1735; Aug -35 1791

US$ -.5% Dow +2 15545 SP +3 1696 NAS +13 3600 Tran -9 6578 VIX -.25 12.29

WTI -1.2% Brent +.1% Gas -2.2% NG -2.2% HO -.7% Eth -1.8%

Gold +3.2% Slvr +5.3%

2-yr unch 0.30% 5-yr unch 1.30% 10yr -.01 2.48% 30yr -.01 3.55% 18-STATE CROP PROGRESS AND CONDITIONS CORN Silking: 43% vs 84% last year and 56% for 5-yr average

Rating Good/Excellent: 63% vs 66% last week and 26% year ago. Poor/Very Poor:  11% vs 9% last week and 45% year ago.

SOYBEAN Blooming: 46% vs 78% last year and 59% for 5-yr average. Set Pods:  8% vs 33% last year and 19% for 5-yr average.

Rating Good/Exc: 64% vs 65% last week and 31% last year. Poor/V.P:  8% vs 8% last week and 35% last year.

Spring Wheat and Pastures also slightly declined in Good/Excellent ratings.

http://usda01.library.cornell.edu/usda/current/CropProg/CropProg-07-22-2013.txt

KENTUCKY CROP PROGRESS AND CONDITIONS – USDA NASS

http://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/Kentucky/Publications/Crop_Progress_&_Condition/index.asp

Blue Grass Stockyards Cattle Auction Report for 07/22/2013  Receipts:  795   Last Monday:  999   Year Ago:  677 Compared to last week steer and heifer calves sold about steady with good demand.  Yearling steers light test.  Yearling heifers sold firm in a limited comparison.  Slaughter cows sold about steady with good demand.  Slaughter bulls sold 1.00 lower with good demand.

Total supply included 7% slaughter cows, 2% slaughter bulls, 0% replacements and 91% feeders.  Feeder supply 19% steers, 28% bulls, 53% heifers with 50% of feeders weighing over 600 lbs.

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