Market Closes - July 13, 2020
Posted on Jul 13, 2020Corn Sep -8 329 (327-34); Dec -8 336 (335-42)
Bean Aug -13 874 (870-85); Nov -15 871-87)
Meal -8 285 (284-92)
Oil -14 2808
Wheat Sep -9 525 (522-35); Dec -8 531; Jly21 -1 537
KC -3 449; MGE -7 519
Oats -11 276
Rice +2 1196
LC Aug -35 9965; Oct -37 10420; Dec -2 10837
FC Aug +130 13705; Oct +102 13952; Jan +152 14050
LH Jly +70 4667; Oct +50 5035; Dec +10 5187
Milk Jly +14 2434; Aug +30 2334; Sep +42 2070
Adding to Friday’s sharp losses, CBOT futures closed sharply lower to start the week. The main factor was weekend rains and forecasts for more, thus removing a big portion of weather risk premium. The latest crop rating has corn at 69% good/excellent compared to 71% week ago and 58% last year. Soybean rating is 68% G/Ex compared to 71% week ago and 54% year ago. Futures gapped lower Sunday evening and corn and soybeans never recovered. Wheat futures clawed their way back to positive territory early morning before dropping lower under the pressure of corn and soybean losses. Soybean meal futures are only a few dollars above the contract lows set June 29.
U.S Crop Progress
Corn is 29% silked vs 10% last week and 32% 5-yr avg.
Corn is 3% in dough vs N/A last week and 3% 5-yr avg.
Soybeans are 48% blooming vs 31% last week and 40% 5-yr avg.
Soybeans are 11% setting pods vs 2% last week and 10% 5-yr avg.
Winter Wheat Harvest
68% harvested, compared to 66% 5-yr avg.
U.S Crop Conditions
Crop Good/Exc Poor/V.Poor
Corn 69% 8%
Soybean 68% 7%
Pasture 36% 30%
LC Aug -35 9965; Oct -37 10420; Dec -2 10837
FC Aug +130 13705; Oct +102 13952; Jan +152 14050
LH Jly +70 4667; Oct +50 5035; Dec +10 5187
Live cattle futures ended mixed while feeder cattle made strong gains on top of Friday’s rally. Feeders benefited nicely from the sharp drop at the CBOT and stronger cash feeder markets. Cash live prices strengthened late last week, offering some support. Choice beef dipped 1.24 to 203.26 and Select fell 2.41 to 191.88. The Choice-Select spread is 11.38. The US stock market reversed huge gains from earlier in the day and closed much lower on news that California is shutting down parts of its economy due to COVID-19. This late-day sell-off may hurt livestock futures on Tuesday if we see follow-through selling in equities.
Lean hog futures posted modest gains except the August LH closed up $1.40/cwt. LH was supported by a strong morning pork cutout that was up 3.40 to 72.35. However, that totally reversed by the afternoon. FOB Plant Pork dropped 1.43 to 67.52, weighed down by around 5% losses in the value of ham and ribs. July LH futures at $46.67 compares to last week’s average negotiated hog price of $29.40/cwt and a base carcass price of $49.39.
US$ -.1% 96.57
Dow +10 26085
SP -30 3155 high of 3235, up 50
NAS -227 10391 high of 10825, up 207
Tran -7 9306
VIX +5.05 32.34 low of 26.9
WTI -95 3981
Brent -99 4225
Gas -4 125
NG -7 173
HO -3 122
Eth +1 133
Gold +3 1805
Slvr +68 1966
2-yr +.002 0.157%
5-yr -.010 0.288%
10yr -.010 0.623%
30yr -.009 1.317%
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