Market Closes - January 31, 2014

Posted on Jan 31, 2014
A huge amount of buy orders on the close pushed corn and soybean futures higher to close at/near the day’s highs. Wheat futures closed higher on a second consecutive day of short-covering.  Soybean Oil futures set a new low and then posted a key reversal higher with sharp gains.

Next week’s trade will depend in part on the pace of export shipments and new export sales (and confirmation of any Chinese cancellations on soybeans).

Live Cattle futures closed slightly lower despite a weak tone in cash cattle price and boxed beef.  By day’s end, boxed beef values had crashed -- Choice carcasses down 7.26 at 223.49 and Select carcasses down 4.94 at 224.85/cwt.  Select is now at a premium to Choice beef.

The CATTLE inventory report was released after the market’s close.  It didn’t contain any big surprises.  However, the all-cattle inventory for January 1, 2014, was the smallest since 1951, while the 2013 calf crop estimate was the smallest since 1949.   More CATTLE estimates are summarized later in this report.

Lean Hog futures trading was mainly characterized by the big rally in deferred LH futures due to concerns that PEDv will trim future hog slaughter.  TYSON Foods made a statement today that added emphasis to the problem.  Nearby futures were pressured by weak pork values (down $2/cwt) and the February contract’s premium to the latest cash hog carcass index value.

Corn Mar unch 434; Jly unch 444; Dec unch 450 (448-51) Bean Mar +8 1283; Jly +6 1252; Nov +7 1104 (1088-1105) Meal Mar +1 426; Oct +1 347 Oil +57 3764 Wheat Mar +2 556; JLY +2 561 (558-64) KC +5 615;  MGE +7 604 Oats -6 406 Rice -2 1540

LC Feb -47 14167; Apr -10 14042; Oct +7 13327 FC Mar +72 16942; Apr +57 16967; Aug +67 17135 LH Feb -15 8622; Apr +117 9480; Jun +147 10482 Milk  Feb -19 2310; Mar -11 2142

US$ +.2%

Dow -150 15699 SP -12 1783 NAS -19 4104 Tran -13 7289 VIX +1.12 18.41  (+6.5%)

WTI -74 9749 Brent -158 10637 Gas -4 264 NG -13 488 HO -3 300 Eth unch 189

Gold +2 1244 Slvr +3 1916

2-yr -.02 0.34% 5-yr -.04 1.50% 10yr -.04 2.66% 30yr -.03 3.605%

U.S. Cattle Inventory  (traders’ expectations) All Cattle and Calves  87.73 million, 98.2% of year ago (98.6%) Beef Cows: 38.25 million, 99.1% year ago  (98.5%) Milk Cows: 9.21 million, 99.9% year ago  (99.9%) Replacement Heifers Beef: 5.47 million, 101.7% year ago  (103.1%) Milk: 4.54 million, 99.7% year ago  (100.3%) CALF CROP 2013: 33.93 million head, 99.0% of 2012  (97.9%) KENTUCKY CATTLE INVENTORY ALL Cattle and Calves: 2.090 million head, down 150,000 head from 1/1/2012 Beef Cows: 1.012 million head, down 16,000 head Milk Cows: 68,000 head, down 4,000 head Replacement Heifers Beef: 145,000 head, down 5,000 head from year ago Milk:  45,000 head, down 5,000 head Other: 115,000 head, down 45,000 head CALF CROP 2013: 970,000 head, down 10,000 head from 2012 crop. Calves under 500 pounds on January 1 450,000 head, down 30,000 head from a year ago 

Kentucky Weekly Livestock Summary for January 24-30, 2014 Receipts This Week   Last Week   Last Year 18,518      22,435      13,949

Compared to last week: Steers and Heifers mostly steady through most of the session; Steers closed 4.00 to 6.00 higher; Heifers closed 3.00 to 5.00 higher.  Demand moderate beginning of the session and advanced to very good to close out the week.  Winter weather has wreaked havoc on the region with thawing and muddy lots over the weekend  to daytime highs in the teens and twenties Monday through Wednesday, which slowed cattle movement.  Temperatures throughout the month have dictated cattle movements and have bottle necked many markets.  Thursday brought temps into the forties and like magic cattle flooded to town and were well accepted.  Slaughter Cows and Bull buyers continue to live hand to mouth in the region and as cattle came to market late in the week they pushed prices 3.00 to 5.00 higher.

Supply:  Slaughter Cows 7 percent; Slaughter Bulls 1 percent; Feeder cattle 91 percent.  In the feeder supply, Steers made up approximately 44 percent and Heifers approximately 41 percent.  Steers and Heifers over 600 lbs totaled approximately 51 percent.  Replacement cattle 1 percent.  

KENTUCKY CASH GRAIN PRICES Click Here 

KENTUCKY LIVESTOCK AUCTIONS --  Click Here

Tagged Post Topics Include: Economics, Market updates