Market Closes - January 29, 2016

Posted on Jan 30, 2016
CBOT futures closed strongly higher despite a much stronger US Dollar. The US Dollar surged one percent today, erasing all of the dollar weakness posted the first 4 days of the week. It’s only one percent from the 12-month high posted in early December 2015. Other outside markets were supportive as energy and equities gained value. Today’s trade was influenced by it being the final trading day of January.

Grains and soybean futures headed higher from the 830 opening. Corn and soybeans rose steadily throughout the session. On the other hand, wheat futures traded sideways/lower after gaining a nickel, then spiked higher in the closing minutes.

Yesterday, the March Soybean contract looked negative with a close under the 20-day moving average. But today, the sharp recovery put the price back above the 100-day average. This contract has resistance at $8.88 and 8.97; support is 8.67.

Cattle futures closed lower at 1 pm and then lost another 50 cents in LC and 100 in FC in the hour thereafter, and just before the CATTLE Inventory report was released by USDA. Live Cattle were pressured by weaker boxed beef and very little cash trading. Feeder futures were also pressured by the rising CBOT market. Since cattle futures have risen significantly in the last 10 days, traders may have decided to book profits before the USDA report. Choice ended down 1.36 at 218.76; Select up 1.70 at 217.13 – both very close to the midday quote. The Choice-Select Spread is very narrow at $1.63/cwt.

The CATTLE Inventory report put cattle numbers higher than the average trade expectation (101.8% for all cattle). The 2016 increase looks even bigger because USDA revised downward the January 1, 2015 estimates, including a 0.7% drop in all cattle and calves.

The January 1, 2016, estimates are shown here as comparisons to the year ago estimate(revised). All U.S. Cattle and Calves. . . . . . . 103.2 percent Beef cows and heifers that calved . . . 103.5 Milk cows and heifers that calved . . . 100.1 Beef Replacement Heifers, over 500 lbs 103.3 Milk Replacement Heifers, over 500 lbs 102.4 Calf Crop . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 102.3

KENTUCKY’s Cattle Estimates are: All Cattle and Calves . . . . . . . . . 105.9 percent Beef cows and heifers that calved . . . 102.4 (1,021,000) Milk cows and heifers that calved . . . 93.7 ( 59,000) Beef Replacement Heifers, over 500 lbs 114.3 Milk Replacement Heifers, over 500 lbs 111.1 Calf Crop . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 103.9 (1,330,000)

Lean Hog futures closed strongly higher, shaking off Thursday’s price weakness. Although the pork cutout was near steady today, it’s up $3.00 from January 21. FOB Plant Pork closed up .08 at 77.01, compared to 77.39 at midday. LH futures have been supported by improving hog and pork markets, along with strong uptrends on the charts. The February LH contract has room to grow with resistance above $70.00. However, it is priced at a premium to the CME Lean Hog Index.

Corn Mar +6 372; Jly +6 381; Dec +6 393 Bean Mar +14 882; Jly +14 890; Nov +13 893 Meal Mar +5 272 Oil +19 3088 Wheat Mar +7 479; Jly +6 490 KC +7 472; MGE +5 500 Oats +2 201 Rice +4 1135

LC Feb -12 13530; Jun -55 12342; Aug -85 11955 FC Mar -217 15725; May -237 15582; Aug -22 15710 LH Feb +50 6580; Apr +100 7070; Jun +87 8065 Milk Jan -1 1373; Feb +7 1389

 

US$ +1% Dow +397 16466 +2.5% SP +47 1940 NAS +107 4614 Tran +205 6907 VIX -2.22 20.20 -9.9%

WTI +52 3374 Brent +85 3474 Gas +3 113 NG +12 230 HO +3 108 Eth +1 143 Gold +1 1116 Slvr +1 1424

2-yr -.043 0.778% 5-yr -.071 1.330% 10yr -.062 1.923% 30yr -.045 2.747%

Total Sheep and Lamb Inventory Up 1 Percent All sheep and lamb inventory in the United States on January 1, 2016 totaled 5.32 million head, up 1 percent from 2015. Breeding sheep inventory at 3.97 million head on January 1, 2016, increased 1 percent from 3.94 million head on January 1, 2015. Ewes one year old and older, at 3.13 million head, were slightly above last year. Market sheep and lambs on January 1, 2016 totaled 1.36 million head, up 1 percent from January 1, 2015. Market lambs comprised 94 percent of the total market inventory. Market sheep comprised the remaining 6 percent of total market inventory.

The 2015 lamb crop of 3.44 million head was unchanged from 2014. The 2015 lambing rate was 111 lambs per 100 ewes one year old and older on January 1, 2015, also unchanged from 2014.

Total Goat and Kid Inventory Down 1 Percent All goat inventory in the United States on January 1, 2016 totaled 2.62 million head, down 1 percent from 2015. Breeding goat inventory totaled 2.16 million head, down 1 percent from 2015. Does one year old and older, at 1.61 million head, were 2 percent below last year's number. Market goats and kids totaled 459 thousand head, down 1 percent from a year ago.

Kid crop for 2015 totaled 1.68 million head for all goats, down 2 percent from 2014.

Meat and all other goats totaled 2.10 million head on January 1, 2016, down 1 percent from 2015. Milk goat inventory was 375 thousand head, up 3 percent from January 1, 2015, while Angora goats were down 6 percent, totaling 150 thousand head.

Tagged Post Topics Include: Economics, Market updates