Market Closes - January 26, 2017

Posted on Jan 26, 2017

Except for wheat contracts, CBOT futures closed lower today with pressure stemming from a stronger US Dollar and a lack of bullish fundamentals. Soybean futures have closed lower 5 of the last 6 days, with March Soybeans 30 cents lower than the January 18th HIGH. As the soybean export market moves to South America, added market pressure could appear. USDA reported Gulf Export basis softened for soybeans and firmed up for corn and wheat. Wheat futures closed higher on strong wheat export sales.

Cattle futures closed sharply lower, especially in Feeder Cattle, as traders reduced positions ahead of Friday’s Cattle on Feed Report and next week’s Cattle report which reports the annual inventory. The selloff occurred even as the cash cattle market held steady at $122/cwt and boxed beef values rose. Choice ended up 1.75 at 193.00; Select up 0.58 at 189.74. The midday quotes were 192.61 Choice and 190.31 Select.  Yesterday, the Fed Cattle Exchange sold 2729 head at an average $121.98/cwt.

Lean Hog futures started the day higher but sold off with the cattle futures market around 11 am CT to close sharply lower near the late-day lows. The nearby February LH contract actually charted a bearish Key Reversal (see Chart here). This follows yesterday’s huge rally based off a friendly (for pork) Cold Storage report (see below). The cash hog market was near steady and pork values climbed thanks to the Belly cut. FOB Plant Pork closed up .41 at 82.81, compared to 83.10 at midday.

Frozen pork supplies closed out 2016 down 8 percent from levels in November, and down 13 percent from the year earlier, according to USDA’s Cold Storage report, published by the National Agricultural Statistics Service. Stocks of pork bellies were down 4 percent from November and down 67 percent from the year earlier.

Corn Mar -2 364; Jly -3 378; Dec -3 391 (389-93)

Bean Mar -6 1049; Jly -5 1066; Nov -2 1023 (1019-29)

       New Bean/corn ratio = 2.62

 Meal -1 342

  Oil -40 3447

Wheat Mar +2 427; Jly +1 455 (449-58)

  KC +2 440; MGE +9 567

Oats -5 255

Rice -9 975

 

LC Feb -117 11870; Jun -90 10720; Aug -102 10295

FC Mar -275 12710; May -235 12515; Aug -180 12602

LH Feb -167 6585; Apr -292 6722; Jun -230 7607

Milk Feb -2 1655; Mar +15 1713

 

US$ +.7%  100.64

Dow +32 20101  - Record HIGH Close

SP -2 2297

NAS -1 5655

Tran +48 9469

   VIX -.18 10.63

 

WTI +103 5378

Brent +101 5609

Gas +2 154

NG +5 335

HO +3 164

Eth +2 146

Gold -8 1190

Slvr -13 1685

 

2-yr -.016 1.228%

5-yr -.021 1.971%

10yr -.011 2.512%

30yr -.020 3.089%

KY Cattle Weekly Summary Report for the week ending 01/24/17
  Receipts:  1487   Last Week:  1274   Year Ago:  1292
Compared to last week steer calves under 700 lbs sold 2.00 to 5.00 higher and heifer calves under 700 lbs sold 3.00 to 7.00 higher with good demand.  Good quality featherweight calves under 400 lbs sold 5.00 to 10.00 higher with very good demand.  Yearling steers sold firm with good demand.  Quality was good through attractive.  Yearling steers traded firm with good demand.  Slaughter cows and slaughter bulls sold steady with moderate demand.

December Milk Production up 2.4 Percent 
  Milk production in the 23 major States during December totaled 16.8 billion pounds, up 2.4 percent from December 2015. November revised production at 16.1 billion pounds, was up 2.8 percent from November 2015.
 

Milk per Cow – record high for December
  Production per cow in the 23 major States averaged 1,931 pounds for December, 35 pounds above December 2015. This is the highest production per cow for the month of December since the 23 State series began in 2003.

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For 2016 as a whole, food-at-home prices were down 1.3% from 2015 levels, the first annual decline in supermarket prices since 1967, according to ERS. 
 

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