Market Closes - January 23, 2015

Posted on Jan 23, 2015
CBOT futures closed mostly lower, albeit by a minimal amount. Corn futures managed a small gain thanks to this morning’s Weekly Export Sales Report which had a very surprisingly LARGE number. In contrast, the soybean sales report was disappointingly small due to the Chinese purchase cancellations earlier in the week. A huge South American crop is on its way. Although the soymeal market moved higher this week, the soybean oil market lost over 5% in value. Beans and soyoil both moved to new lows for 2015. The soaring US Dollar weighed on most commodity prices which rely on exports. Today’s CFTC Report (for week end 1-15) shows the speculative funds are still quite long corn but are likely building a SHORT position in soybean futures.

Cattle futures closed sharply lower with many contracts down the $3.00 limit for LC and $4.50 limit on FC. The speculative funds which helped get cattle futures to record highs are now trying to get out of their longs and buyers aren’t to be found. Amid the rising US Dollar and deflationary concerns, investment money is moving out. In beef, Choice carcasses down 1.91 at 253.74; Select down 1.66 at 247.23.

This afternoon’s Cattle on Feed Report showed January 1st on-feed inventory up 1 percent which is short of the average +1.5% trade expectation. The difference resulted from smaller-than-expected December Placements.

Lean Hog futures fell sharply for similar reasons cattle did. FOB Plant Pork down .32 to 84.38. Until the speculators quit pushing on the market, it’s not wise to pick a bottom. Just as the specs drive prices too high, they can take futures lower than fundamentals justify.

Corn Mar +3 387; Jly +3 403; Dec +4 417 Bean Mar -4 973; Jly -3 985; Nov -1 960 Meal +1 331 Oil -37 3160 Wheat Mar -4 530; JLY -4 536 KC -1 564; MGE unch 576 Oats unch 290 Rice -15 1101

LC Feb -300 limit 15035; Apr -300 14880; Oct -250 14475 FC Jan -227 21370; Mar -450 limit 20182; Aug -450 20502 LH Feb -230 6930; Apr -222 7065; Jun -295 8020 Milk Feb +25 1501; Mar +22 1461

US$ +.5% 9497 (9410-9548)

Dow -141 17673 SP -11 2052 NAS +7 4758 Tran -162 8982 VIX +.26 16.66

WTI -105 4526 Brent +9 4861 Gas +1 135 NG +13 296 HO unch 164 Eth +4 143 Gold -6 1295 Slvr -3 1832

2-yr -.032 0.490% 5-yr -.072 1.308% 10yr -.107 1.789% 30yr -.105 2.365%

Kentucky Weekly Livestock Summary for the week of Jan 16-22, 2015. Receipts This Week     Last Week     Last Year 26,791          23,630            22,435 Compared to last week, Steer Calves below 500 lbs sold mostly steady with instances to 5.00 higher and good demand, above 500 lbs mostly steady to 4.00 lower with moderate demand. Heifer Calves below 500 lbs sold mostly steady with good demand, above 500 lbs 2.00 to 4.00 lower with moderate demand. Yearling steers were 2.00 to 4.00 lower with moderate demand and Yearling Heifers 10.00 lower with a limited comparison available. Slaughter Cows sold steady to 3.00 lower with moderate demand and Slaughter Bulls steady to 2.00 lower with moderate demand.

Supply: Slaughter Cows 6 percent; Slaughter Bulls 1 percent; Feeder cattle 90 percent. In the feeder supply, Steers made up approximately 39 percent and Heifers approximately 37 percent. Steers and Heifers over 600 lbs totaled approximately 49 percent. Replacement cattle 3 percent.

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Tagged Post Topics Include: Economics, Market updates