There was a lot going on in the markets today to cause prices to ebb and flow. Early morning strength in soybean and wheat markets melted away throughout the day. Corn futures bounced up and down in a narrow range but closed higher on demand optimism.

For Argentina, it appeared the weather outlook improved once again.  The market was shocked by a huge decline in Argentina’s currency (PESO) which raises their domestic price for crops sold onto the world market. Will this increase sales from there?

Tomorrow morning’s USDA export sales report may provide confirmation of export cancellations for soybeans which fears of same have been hurting the soy market this week.

Another big factor for markets was the sharp drop in US equity values along with a big drop in Treasury yields and a jump in gold price as investors sought safe places for their money.   Financial markets responded to disappointing economic reports from China and concerns about U.S. corporate earnings.  This activity also weighed on the value of the U.S. dollar.  Generally, a weaker US dollar should support prices of heavily exported commodities.

Wheat futures have moved higher off key chart support levels on ideas that US wheat is competitive and that the extended severe cold may damage Midwest wheat (but we may not know until wheat breaks dormancy).

Looks like the beef retailers didn’t call in today after seeing the sharp rise in cash cattle and futures yesterday.  Thus boxed beef values dropped – with Choice down 1.50 at 238.55 and Select down 0.51 at 236.93/cwt.  This sparked a day of profit-taking by the huge fund longs.  Although not expecting any surprises, traders will prepare for a Cattle on Feed report coming out tomorrow afternoon.   The January 1^st inventory could be about 6 pct below a year earlier.

Lean Hog futures closed with little change from yesterday. Both cash and pork values lack conviction on price direction.  Pork cutout was weaker at midday but finished higher.  Cash hogs were steady to firm.  The February LH contract continues to hold its $5.00/cwt premium to cash so traders remain optimistic that declining daily slaughter and a switch from beef to pork retail featuring will lift cash prices in the next few weeks.

Corn Mar +3 429; Jly +2 441; Dec +2 449 (447-51) Bean mar -2 1277; Jly -2 1250; Nov -4 1109 Meal Mar -1 419; Oct -2 347 Oil +2 3786 Wheat Mar +9 570; Jly +8 582 (574-90) KC +7 632;  MGE unch 617 Oats -10 389 Rice -7 1543

LC Feb +25 14392 (14277-14395)      Apr -120 14060; Oct -107 13320 FC Jan -10 17037; Apr -62 17035; Aug -82 17197 LH Feb +2 8557; Apr -2 9295; Jun +10 10210 Milk Feb +28 2235; Mar -10 2050

US$ -.9%

Dow -176 16197 (-1.1%) SP -24 4219 NAS -24 4219 Tran +21 7570 VIX +.93 13.77  +7.2%

WTI +66 9739 Brent -74 10753 Gas -1 266 NG +15 484 HO +4 308 Eth -4 181

Gold +25 1264 Slvr +18 2002

2-yr -.04 0.37% 5-yr -.10 1.61% 10yr -.09 2.78% 30yr -.08 3.68% 

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