Market Closes - February 7, 2014

Posted on Feb 8, 2014
CBOT futures traded actively today with mixed closes.  Traders are preparing for Monday’s USDA supply-demand updates although no huge changes from January forecasts are expected.  South American weather forecasts on Sunday evening will give the market direction.  Also, with China back from New Year holiday, traders will be “listening” for Chinese soybean cancellations in favor of Brazilian shipments.

Today’s CFTC report showed that as of Tuesday the large funds had nearly covered their short corn position and have added quite a lot to the very large LONG soybean position.  While this buying has supported the market the past week, it also means the funds have lots of “selling power” should they decide to be bearish.

Did you notice Soybean contracts have closed higher for 7 straight days after posting an UP Reversal on January 30?  The next technical challenge for soybean futures is to break above the December highs.

Live Cattle futures closed up sharply even as boxed beef and fed cattle prices declined.  The rally may have been short-covering going into the weekend after a long period of lower prices. Choice carcasses down 2.74 at 210.77 and Select down 3.12 at 209.19/cwt.  Limited cattle sales in the NE/IA area reportedly priced at $140-141/cwt.

Lean Hog futures closed higher and are near the top end of recent trading ranges.  Market support came from stronger pork values and the rally in the cattle pit.  The nearby LH futures of 86.57 is almost $3/cwt premium to the last CME Lean Hog Index value of $83.81.  FOB Plant Pork Cutout increased 1.35 to 92.20/cwt.

Outside markets were supportive today with a weaker US dollar, higher energy prices and a strong US stock market.

Corn Mar +1 444 (440-45); Jly +2 455; Dec +2 460 (455-61) Bean Mar +6 1331 (1320-32); Jly +5 1298; Nov +3 1122 (1116-23) Meal Mar unch 446; Oct +2 353 OIL -10 3856 Wheat Mar -3 577; Jly -2 584 (572-91) KC unch 649;  MGE +1 639 Oats -20 436  Hit high of 467, then limit down! Rice -4 1534

LC Feb +165 14120; Apr +132 14040; Oct +97 13387 FC Mar +80 16780; Apr +72 16852; Aug +87 17130 LH Feb +7 8657; Apr +52 9472; Jun +30 10535 Milk Feb -34 2287; Mar -33 2072

US$ -.3% Dow +166 15794 SP +24 1797 NAS +69 4126 Tran +60 7242 VIX -1.94 15.29  -11.3%

WTI +204 9988 Brent +238 10957 Gas +7 275 NG -16 477 HO +5.5 305 Eth +4 196

Gold +6 1263 Slvr +1 1994

2-yr -.02 0.31% 5-yr -.05 1.47% 10yr -.02 2.68% 30yr unch 3.675%

Kentucky Weekly Livestock Summary  for January 31-February 6, 2014

Receipts This Week   Last Week   Last Year 14,969      18,518      17,567 Compared to last week, Steers and Heifers were 3.00 to 4.00 lower with moderate demand.  After short reprieve early in the session, snow, ice and extreme cold continued to cover the region, slowing the movement of cattle to markets.  Truckers are having trouble moving loads west due to the weather further affecting demand.  Slaughter Cows and Bulls sold 3.00 to 4.00 higher with good to very good demand.  Tight supplies and limited movement provided more support to an already thriving Slaughter Cow and Bull market. Supply:  Slaughter Cows 7 percent; Slaughter Bulls 1 percent; Feeder cattle 91 percent.  In the feeder supply, Steers made up approximately 35 percent and Heifers approximately 45 percent.  Steers and Heifers over 600 lbs totaled approximately 43 percent.  Replacement cattle 1 percent.

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Tagged Post Topics Include: Economics, Market updates