Today’s USDA 2014-15 supply-demand forecasts and disappointing weekly Export Sales reports weighed on CBOT futures.  However, the soy complex overcame those factors on concerns that South American soybean production is slipping below earlier forecasts. Soy futures surged higher in the closing minute of trade.

USDA’s Risk Management Agency is in the process of determining the Projected Price for Crop Insurance.  Currently, the average price for Kentucky policies is $4.60 on corn, $4.44 on grain sorghum and $11.26 on soybeans.

Cattle futures closed lower ahead of today’s Cattle on Feed Report, although current price levels are very strong.  Fed cattle reportedly traded around $144-145/cwt, up $2 from last week.  Boxed beef dropped slightly with Choice carcasses down 0.57 at 213.75 and Select down 0.48 at 210.88/cwt.

The Cattle on Feed Report may weigh on Live Cattle futures come Monday as feedlot placements were much higher than expected, meaning the February 1^st inventory was about 1 percent larger than expected.  See report below.

Lean Hog futures closed higher with big gains in the April and May contracts as the nearby strength in pork and hog prices has more influence there. Technically, the nearby contract has resistance on the Weekly Continuation chart at $102.45, then $107.35.

Corn Mar -3 453 (450-56);  Jly -4 463; Dec -4 464 (462-69) Bean Mar +12 1371 (1351-72);    Jly +13 1345; Nov +8 1154 (1141-55) Meal Mar +5 456; Oct +2 361 Oil +38 4095 Wheat Mar -6 610; Jly -8 609 (609-19) KC -9 683; MGE -17 664 Oats -3 465 Rice -4 1571

LC Feb -5 14455; Apr -42 14145; Oct -32 13440 FC Mar -42 17070; Apr -60 17120; Aug -30 17400 LH Apr +152 9935; Jun +25 10802; Oct +10 9205 Milk Feb +4 2319; Mar +30 2179

US$ steady Dow -30 16103 SP -4 1836 NAS -4 4263 Tran +57 7309 VIX -.11 14.68

WTI -55 10220 Brent -47 10983 Gas -1 283 NG +7 613 HO -8 310 Eth unch 207

Gold +7 1324 Slvr +15 2183

2-yr 0.32% unch 5-yr 1.54% -.01 10yr 2.73% -.02 30yr 3.70% -.03

U.S. Cattle on Feed Down 3 Percent    Cattle and calves on feed for slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 10.8 million head on February 1, 2014. The inventory was 3 percent below February 1, 2013. Placements in feedlots during January totaled 2.03 million, 9 percent above 2013. Net placements were 1.96 million head. During January, placements ofcattle and calves weighing less than 600 pounds were 470,000, 600-699 pounds were 440,000, 700-799 pounds were 560,000, and 800 pounds and greater were559,000. Marketings of fed cattle during January totaled 1.79 million, 5 percent below 2013.

Kentucky Weekly Livestock Summary for February 14-20, 2014 Receipts This Week     Last Week    Last Year 22,982         16,780      16,499 Compared to last week:  Steer and Heifer calves sold mostly 3.00 to 5.00 higher with some lighter weights spiking to 10.00 higher early in the session.  Feeder Steers were 1.00 to 2.00 higher and Feeder Heifers mostly steady with a limited comparison.  Demand was very good for all feeder classes.  Weather and road conditions were back to normal this week allowing for more normal movement of cattle to all barns.  The higher price gains came early in the session where the comparative supply and demand were affected by adverse weather conditions last week. Slaughter Cows were steady to 1.00 lower and Slaughter Bulls steady.  Demand was good to very good for all slaughter cattle.

Supply:  Slaughter Cows 8 percent; Slaughter Bulls 1 percent; Feeder cattle 90 percent.  In the feeder supply, Steers made up approximately 39 percent and Heifers approximately 41 percent.  Steers and Heifers over 600 lbs totaled approximately 45 percent.  Replacement cattle 1 percent.

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