It was a tale of two markets today.  Corn started the day weaker but rallied all day and closed near the highs; soy futures traded higher overnight in follow-through buying from Thursday’s rally but sold off during the day to close near the day’s lows.  Wheat futures traded both sides of unchanged, were more variable and closed mid-range, but higher as the trend remains up.

Corn did not participate in yesterday’s rally so it had some catching up to do.  Also, corn demand remains strong – domestically and for export.  Export basis levels for corn increased today.  USDA raised its export forecast by 150 million bushels in Monday’s WASDE update which reduced the 2013/14 carryout forecast by the same amount. Tonight’s CFTC report shows the funds have erased their short position and were building a long position as of Tuesday.

Soybean trade was volatile this week with fairly wide ranges; but in the end, prices closed only slightly higher for the week.  As trading resumes Monday evening, traders will watch the South American weather forecast and China’s trading activity.  The CFTC report shows the funds increasing their long position by about 20 percent as of Tuesday.  When will this trend change?

Cattle futures closed lower, giving back much of Thursday’s gains.  Cash cattle traded at $142-143/cwt this week while boxed beef values dropped Friday and for the week. Choice down 0.42 to 207.68 and Select down .80 to 206.96/cwt.  USDA estimates this week’s beef production will total 432 million pounds, down from 448 million last week and 477 million for the same week a year ago.

Lean Hog futures closed sharply higher on rising cash hog prices yesterday and today. However, the late-day FOB Plant Pork Cutout was down 0.84 to $94.33/cwt.

Corn Mar +5 445 (438-46); Jly +4 455; Dec +3 460 Bean Mar -7 1337 (1337-56); Jly -4 1307; Nov -3 1130 Meal Mar -3 450; Oct -1 356 oIL -39 3915 Wheat Mar +3 598; Jly +3 600 (596-603) KC +2 674;  MGE +4 666 Oats +11 422 Rice -12 1558

LC Feb -55 14260; Apr -130 14110; Oct -35 13445 FC Mar -25 17047; Apr -25 17135; Aug -25 17345 LH Apr +125 9617; Jun +122 10612; Aug +92 10347 Milk Feb +2 2314; Mar -1 2103

US$ -.2%

Dow +127 16154 SP +9 1839 NAS +3 4244 Tran +25 7307 VIX -.57 13.57

WTI +2 10037 Brent +51 10903 Gas +2.5 280 NG -4.5 518 HO +5 308 Eth +4 206

Gold +18 1318 Slvr +109 2148

2-yr unch 0.315% 5-yr +.01 1.52% 10yr +.01 2.74% 30yr steady 3.70%

Kentucky Weekly Livestock Summary for February 7-13, 2014 Receipts This Week   Last Week  Last Year 16,780      14,969     22,537

Compared to last week:  Steer and Heifer calves sold 5.00-10.00 higher; Feeder Steers and Heifers 3.00-5.00 higher, after opening the session steady.  Demand ranged from moderate to very good.  Cold weather continues to complicate logistics and movement of cattle.  For the 3rd consecutive week weather systems and precipitation move in early in the week, hindering receipts and demand early on.  By mid-session, sunshine and warmer temperatures (mid 30's F) along with favorable market conditions brought cattle to town, which were met with good to very good demand.  Effects of sustained subnormal temperatures is visible in the cattle with even the highest quality of cattle lacking the usual bloom; resulting in offerings in thin to average flesh.

Slaughter Cows and Bulls 2.00-3.00 higher; demand very good.  Short numbers, inconsistent flow of cattle due to winter weather across the country continues to support Slaughter Cow and Bull prices.

Supply:  Slaughter Cows 8 percent; Slaughter Bulls 1 percent; Feeder cattle 90 percent.  In the feeder supply, Steers made up approximately 44 percent and Heifers approximately 38 percent.  Steers and Heifers over 600 lbs totaled approximately 54 percent.  Replacement cattle 1 percent.          

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