Market Closes & Drought Monitor - October 4, 2012

Posted on Oct 4, 2012
 

  Outside markets were very supportive to commodity futures with a much weaker US dollar and soaring energy futures.  Crude oil prices soared today recovering more than the amount lost Wednesday.  Tensions between Syria and Turkey added risk premium.  Gasoline and heating oil futures also rose 3-4 percent.  Equities and precious metals also increased modestly.

  Soybean futures closed over one percent higher although well off the day’s highs which came about 9 am CT.  The rally is a continuation of the buying which started Wednesday after futures reversed higher after a sharp drop to new lows for this move. Better than expected soybean export sales were also supportive. And China accounted for 38 million out of the 47.5 million bushels sold.  Corn and wheat export sales were disappointing.

 In both corn and soybean futures, deferred contracts lost ground to the more near contracts. Both markets have “inverse” price structure, with it more severe in soybeans.

  While fed cattle cash prices firmed $1/cwt today, cattle futures closed lower. This follows the reversal down in prices from yesterday. In boxed beef, Choice UP 0.65 at 191.35; Select DN 0.44 at 177.09.

  The October Lean Hog contract closed sharply higher while deferred futures posted small gains.  Cash hog prices were up again today.  The Pork Cutout rose $1.84 to $84.95/cwt.  The October contract is approaching chart resistance at $83.00 and $84.30.  October is at a premium to the cash so upside potential may be limited.  

  The latest ENSO update from the Climate Prediction Center says that the move toward El Nino has slowed down.  ENSO-neutral or weak-El Nino conditions are forecast to continue into our Winter period, with possible strengthening in months ahead.

  Outside markets may be influenced Friday morning by the U.S. Jobs Report at 830 am ET.  Economists expect 118,000 jobs to have been added.

Corn Dec unch 757; Mar unch 757; Dec’13 -6 628

Bean Nov +20 1551.5 (1531-1569); Mar +17 1518; Nov’13 -3 1334  Meal Oct +5 471; May -1 429   Oil +67 5100

Wheat Dec -4 869; Mar -4 880; Jly -8 844   KC -4 887; MGE -3.5 926

LC Oct -75 12232; Dec -32 12570; Apr -37 13335

FC Oct -82 14447; Nov -97 14582; Jan -107 14850

LH Oct +177 8180; Dec +17 7605; Apr -67 8807

Milk Oct -17 2100; Nov -16 2118

Oats +7.5 371

Rice +13 1537

US$ -.7%

Dow +80 13575

SP +10 1461

NAS +14 3150

Tran +47 5013

 VIX -.88 14.55

WTI +341 9155

Brent +418 11235

Gas +13.5 293.5

NG +1.4 341

HO +11 318

Eth +2 239

Gold +12 1790

Slvr +35 3504

2-yr +.012 0.246% 5-yr +.027 0.630% 10yr +.055 1.672% 30yr +.066 2.885% 

Blue Grass Stockyards Cattle Weekly Summary Report for the week ending 10/02/12

Receipts:  2,498   Last Week:  2,810   Year Ago:  3,789    Compared to last week, steer calves sold steady to firm with good demand.  Heifer calves sold steady to 2.00 lower with moderate demand except featherweight heifer calves under 400 lbs 5.00 lower with light demand.  Yearling steers sold steady to 2.00 higher with good demand.  Yearling heifers steady to 2.00 lower with moderate demand in a light test.  Slaughter cows sold steady to 1.00 higher with moderate demand.  Slaughter bulls sold steady to 2.00 higher with good demand.

   Total supply included 08% slaughter cows, 02% slaughter bulls, 01% replacements and 89% feeders.  Feeder supply 51% steers, 18% bulls, 31% heifers with 50% of feeders weighing over 600 lbs.

Tagged Post Topics Include: Economics, Market updates