Market Closes & Drought Monitor - October 4, 2012
Posted on Oct 4, 2012Outside markets were very supportive to commodity futures with a much weaker US dollar and soaring energy futures. Crude oil prices soared today recovering more than the amount lost Wednesday. Tensions between Syria and Turkey added risk premium. Gasoline and heating oil futures also rose 3-4 percent. Equities and precious metals also increased modestly.
Soybean futures closed over one percent higher although well off the day’s highs which came about 9 am CT. The rally is a continuation of the buying which started Wednesday after futures reversed higher after a sharp drop to new lows for this move. Better than expected soybean export sales were also supportive. And China accounted for 38 million out of the 47.5 million bushels sold. Corn and wheat export sales were disappointing.
In both corn and soybean futures, deferred contracts lost ground to the more near contracts. Both markets have “inverse” price structure, with it more severe in soybeans.
While fed cattle cash prices firmed $1/cwt today, cattle futures closed lower. This follows the reversal down in prices from yesterday. In boxed beef, Choice UP 0.65 at 191.35; Select DN 0.44 at 177.09.
The October Lean Hog contract closed sharply higher while deferred futures posted small gains. Cash hog prices were up again today. The Pork Cutout rose $1.84 to $84.95/cwt. The October contract is approaching chart resistance at $83.00 and $84.30. October is at a premium to the cash so upside potential may be limited.
The latest ENSO update from the Climate Prediction Center says that the move toward El Nino has slowed down. ENSO-neutral or weak-El Nino conditions are forecast to continue into our Winter period, with possible strengthening in months ahead.
Outside markets may be influenced Friday morning by the U.S. Jobs Report at 830 am ET. Economists expect 118,000 jobs to have been added.
Corn Dec unch 757; Mar unch 757; Dec’13 -6 628
Bean Nov +20 1551.5 (1531-1569); Mar +17 1518; Nov’13 -3 1334 Meal Oct +5 471; May -1 429 Oil +67 5100
Wheat Dec -4 869; Mar -4 880; Jly -8 844 KC -4 887; MGE -3.5 926
LC Oct -75 12232; Dec -32 12570; Apr -37 13335
FC Oct -82 14447; Nov -97 14582; Jan -107 14850
LH Oct +177 8180; Dec +17 7605; Apr -67 8807
Milk Oct -17 2100; Nov -16 2118
Oats +7.5 371
Rice +13 1537
US$ -.7%
Dow +80 13575
SP +10 1461
NAS +14 3150
Tran +47 5013
VIX -.88 14.55
WTI +341 9155
Brent +418 11235
Gas +13.5 293.5
NG +1.4 341
HO +11 318
Eth +2 239
Gold +12 1790
Slvr +35 3504
2-yr +.012 0.246% 5-yr +.027 0.630% 10yr +.055 1.672% 30yr +.066 2.885%
Blue Grass Stockyards Cattle Weekly Summary Report for the week ending 10/02/12
Receipts: 2,498 Last Week: 2,810 Year Ago: 3,789 Compared to last week, steer calves sold steady to firm with good demand. Heifer calves sold steady to 2.00 lower with moderate demand except featherweight heifer calves under 400 lbs 5.00 lower with light demand. Yearling steers sold steady to 2.00 higher with good demand. Yearling heifers steady to 2.00 lower with moderate demand in a light test. Slaughter cows sold steady to 1.00 higher with moderate demand. Slaughter bulls sold steady to 2.00 higher with good demand.
Total supply included 08% slaughter cows, 02% slaughter bulls, 01% replacements and 89% feeders. Feeder supply 51% steers, 18% bulls, 31% heifers with 50% of feeders weighing over 600 lbs.
Tagged Post Topics Include: Economics, Market updates
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