Market Closes - December 27, 2013

Posted on Dec 28, 2013
A midday rally in the soy complex lifted corn and wheat futures slightly.  Soybean futures made a final push to the day’s highs in the final 15 minutes of trading on apparent short-covering of sales made earlier in the day. For the week, all major CBOT ag futures lost ground with wheat futures making new contract lows. The wheat price charts look pretty negative.  Today’s USDA report on export sales was positive for corn and soybeans but had little market impact.

The CBOT market opening on Sunday evening may depend on the latest weather forecast for Argentina’s crop areas. South American growing conditions are increasing in importance.

Live Cattle futures closed higher with the nearby December LC contract up sharply on news of cash cattle trading at $132-133 in KS/TX, up $2-3/cwt from last week’s trade.  The December LC contract finished at its best price since October 30. Today’s closing price is the highest weekly close on record  (SEE CHART, click HERE. ).  This contract ends trading next Tuesday.  Boxed beef did not follow live prices higher today, thus squeezing packer margins even more so.  Choice carcasses were up 0.06 at 196.99 and Select carcasses rose 0.84 at 191.30/cwt.

 Lean Hog futures faced mixed signals today ahead of the USDA Hog and Pigs report released after the market closed.   The rally in Cattle futures and Thursday’s hog/pork strength were supportive, but a sharp drop in pork values today weighed on the market.  FOB Plant Pork Cutout dropped 3.48 to $82.85/cwt due to big losses in bellies, picnics and hams.  Ham price is down nearly 10 cents/lb to 71 cents in the past 7 days.

Today’s hog report is considered bullish for hog futures. Both breeding and market hogs were below the average trade guess.  Breeding inventory was 2 percentage points below the average guess, and also over a point lower than the lowest analyst guess. The summary of the U.S. numbers is shown at the end of this message.

Kentucky’s December 1 hog inventory consists of the following:   BREEDING:  38,000 head, up 2,000 head from a year ago.   MARKET:   277,000 head, down 2,000 head from a year ago.

Corn Mar +1 427 (426-29); Jly +1 443; Dec +1 455 Bean Jan +13 1331 (1319-32); Jly +7 1286; Nov +3 1154 Meal Jan +5 446; Jly +2 410 Oil +15 3902 Wheat Mar +3 609; Jly +2 621 (616-22) KC unch 644; MGE -3 635 Oats +3 356 Rice +1 1545

LC Dec +115 13385; Apr +65 13562; Jun +20 12955 FC Jan +40 16700; Apr +60 16877; Aug +62 17045 LH Feb +35 8565; Apr +32 9097; Jun +15 10025 Milk Dec -2 1899; Jan -15 1945

US$ -.2%

Dow -1 16478 SP -1 1841 NAS -11 4157 Tran -12 7352 VIX +.13 12.46

WTI +77 10032 Brent +13 11211 Gas unch 282 NG -3 441 HO +3 312 Eth +1 196

Gold +2 1214 Slvr +13 2001

2-yr -.02 0.40% 5-yr unch 1.75% 10yr +.01 3.00% 30yr +.01 3.94%

United States Hog Inventory Down 1 Percent United States inventory of all hogs and pigs on December 1, 2013 was 65.9 million head. This was down 1 percent from December 1, 2012, and down 2 percent from September 1, 2013.

Breeding inventory, at 5.76 million head, was down 1 percent from last year, and down 1 percent from the previous quarter.

Market hog inventory, at 60.2 million head, was down 1 percent from last year, and down 2 percent from last quarter.

The September-November 2013 pig crop, at 29.3 million head, was down slightly from 2012. Sows farrowing during this period totaled 2.88 million head, down slightly from 2012. The sows farrowed during this quarter represented 50 percent of the breeding herd. The average pigs saved per litter was a record high 10.16 for the September-November period, compared to 10.15 last year.  Pigs saved per litter by size of operation ranged from 8.00 for operations with 1-99 hogs and pigs to 10.20 for operations with more than 5,000 hogs and pigs.

United States hog producers intend to have 2.83 million sows farrow during the December 2013-February 2014 quarter, up 1 percent from the actual farrowings during the same period in 2013, and up slightly from 2012. Intended farrowings for March-May 2014, at 2.86 million sows, are up 1 percent from 2013, but down 3 percent from 2012.

The total number of hogs under contract owned by operations with over 5,000 head, but raised by contractees, accounted for 48 percent of the total United States hog inventory, up from 47 percent last year.

KENTUCKY CASH GRAIN BIDS Click Here

Tagged Post Topics Include: Economics, Market updates