Market Closes - August 5, 2019

Posted on Aug 5, 2019

Corn Sep +6 405; Dec +5 415 (401-16)

Bean Sep unch 856; Nov unch 869 (854-74)

  Meal +2 297

  Oil -45 2787

Wheat Sep +4 494; Jly +4 514 (500-14)

  KC +5 427; MGE +2 524

Oats unch 266

Rice -27 1143

 

LC +15 10780; Dec +12 11190; Feb +60 11605

FC Aug +90 14052; Oct +45 13842; Jan +80 13787

LH Aug +157 7785; Oct +170 6742; Dec -105 6220

Milk Aug +13 1742; Sep +2 1781

CBOT futures traded lower overnight but rallied throughout the day session even as the U.S. equity markets were falling lower and lower due to the escalation of the US/China trade dispute. The results of the CBOT rally varied by commodity – corn and wheat closed strongly higher at/near the day’s highs, while soybeans finished steady and 4-6 cents below the day’s highs. Today’s chart patterns are encouraging, especially in soybean futures where today’s lows filled the chart gaps set May 28, followed by a strong rally. Soybeans closed steady due to offsetting strength in soybean meal and weakness in soybean oil (energy futures were lower). Tonight’s crop ratings show little change from the previous week; crop development is behind the 5-year average. Traders will continue to watch the weather forecast and news from the White House.

Week ending August 4

U.S. Corn Conditions

.      Good/Excellent  Poor/V.Poor

This Week      57%         13%

Last Week      58%         12%

Last year      71%         10%

** 23% in dough vs 42% average

U.S. Soybean Conditions

.      Good/Excellent  Poor/V.Poor

This Week      54%         13%

Last Week      54%         13%

Last year      67%         10%

  ** 37% setting pods vs 63% average

Winter Wheat Harvested

82% complete vs 92% average

U.S. Pasture and Range

58% good/excellent vs 40% year ago.

13% poor/v.poor vs 30% year ago.

 

LC Aug +15 10780; Dec +12 11190; Feb +60 11605

FC Aug +90 14052; Oct +45 13842; Jan +80 13787

LH Aug +157 7785; Oct +170 6742; Dec -105 6220

Cattle futures closed variably higher after suffering sharply lower opening trade due to the sharp losses in equities and other commodity futures. However, the day’s highs were set about two hours later with prices settling back into the close. August LC is at a big discount to recent cash trade. Choice beef slipped .03 to 214.70 and Select rose 1.04 to 191.67.

Lean Hog futures closed extremely mixed with the August LH up 1.57 and the May20 LH down 2.97. Only the August and the October LH were higher on the day; these contracts posted bullish key reversals. But any optimism has to take into account the rise in US/China trade tensions. A stronger pork cutout was supportive - FOB Plant Pork +1.49 to 88.13 and belly value rose over 4% and hams rose 3%.

US$ -.6% 97.5

Dow -767 25718

SP -87 2845

NAS -278 7726

Tran -334 10040

  VIX +6.98  24.59%

 

WTI -90 5477

Brent -196 5993

Gas -6 172

NG -3 209

HO -5 184

Eth -1 145

Gold +15  1461

Slvr +15 1642

 

2-yr -.147 1.575%

5-yr -.015 1.520%

10yr -.146 1.709%

30yr -.136 2.256%

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