Market Closes - August 3, 2015

Posted on Aug 3, 2015
CBOT futures closed lower across the board on ideas that corn/bean crops are in good shape with no threatening weather. Adding pressure to prices were a stronger US dollar, sharply lower energy futures and fund selling (who are long corn and beans). Tonight’s USDA crop ratings show steady Corn and improved Soybean ratings; both are behind last year’s ratings at this of the season. Note in the chart that Kentucky’s Corn crop is far ahead of 2014 and the 5-year average rating.

Corn Conditions – 18 States . Good/Excellent Poor/V.Poor This Week 70% 9% Last Week 70 9 Year Ago 73 7

Soybean Conditions – 18 States . Good/Excellent Poor/V.Poor This Week 63% 11% Last Week 62 11 Year Ago 71 6

Winter Wheat Harvested This Week 93% Last Week 85 Year Ago 89

Pasture Conditions 58% good/excellent vs 12% poor/v.poor

Cattle futures closed sharply higher on ideas that demand is picking up as retailers begin to stock up for the Labor Day weekend. Cash cattle prices surprised to the upside last Friday at $146-148/cwt. Choice beef also firmed today. Choice carcasses ended up 0.74 at 233.99; Select down 0.46 at 228.83. Cattle futures had begun to rally last week after the long price decline during June and July.

Lean Hog futures also closed strongly higher on support from strong cash markets on Friday and follow-through strength in the pork cutout today. Fob Plant Pork closed up .46 at 87.94 on stronger ham and butt values. The huge cattle futures rally also encouraged buyers.

Traders were nervous about financial markets today as the energy markets fell sharply. US Treasury yields fell sharply as money moved out of more risky investments. There’s general commodity deflation as measured by the CRB Index; the CRB moved to a new low not seen since early 2009. By comparison to today’s Index of 199, it peaked above 310 last summer. Over the past 20 years, an Index value of 200 has been a key chart level of support or resistance.  View Chart Here

Corn Sep -4 366; Dec -5 376 (374-80) Bean Sep -8 945; Nov -5 935 (926-42) Meal Sep -2 336 Oil -13 2997 Wheat Sep unch 499; Dec unch 505 (496-508) KC -3 489; MGE -6 517 Oats -7 234 Rice -12 1139

LC Aug +230 14800 (hi 14867); Dec +195 14940; Feb +175 14920 FC Aug +312 21385 (hi21450); Oct +302 20882; Jan +302 20155 LH Aug +170 8020 (hi 8042); Oct +160 6532; Dec +145 6190 Milk Aug +5 1646; Sep +19 1675

 

US$ +.1% Dow -92 17598 SP -6 2098 NAS -13 5115 Tran +25 8417 VIX +.44 12.56 +3.6%

WTI -176 4536 Brent -252 4969 Gas -9 168 NG +4 275 HO – 5 154 Eth -2 149 Gold -10 1085 Slvr -25 1449

2-yr -.011 0.665% 5-yr -.034 1.514% 10yr -.057 2.148% 30yr -.074 2.854%

Kentucky Weekly Livestock Summary for the week of Jul 27-Aug 1 2015. Receipts This Week Last Week Last Year 10,252 13,042 19,183 Compared to last week, Steer and Heifer calves sold 3.00 to 5.00 lower with light to moderate demand for most of the week, but, was trending steady to a bit higher toward the end with good to very good demand. Quality was plain to average. Yearling steers and heifers sold 3.00 to 5.00 lower with light to moderate demand. Slaughter Cows sold 2.00 to 4.00 lower with moderate to good demand and slaughter bulls steady to 2.00 lower with good demand.

Supply consisted of 9 percent slaughter, 6 percent replacement, and 85 percent feeder cattle. In the feeder supply, steers made up approximately 35 percent and heifers approximately 39 percent. Steers and heifers over 600 lbs totaled approximately 45 percent.

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Tagged Post Topics Include: Economics, Market updates